Kazakhstan has expressed interest in joining the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline project, a move that could ultimately facilitate Russia’s entry into the long-debated initiative according to Eldaniz Gusseinov, a columnist for Daryo and a Non-Resident Research Fellow at the Haydar Aliyev Center for Eurasian Studies.
Eldaniz noted that the country’s Ministry of Energy announced that state-owned company Kazakhgas is engaged in negotiations to participate in the project, which aims to transport Turkmen gas to South Asia.
The ministry confirmed that discussions between Kazakhgas and Turkmenistan’s Turkmengaz are ongoing. Kazakhstan views TAPI as a strategic priority, particularly as geopolitical shifts in Afghanistan, including the Taliban’s removal from the list of terrorist organizations, have yet to fully stabilize the region. Simultaneously, Kazakhstan is strengthening its transport links with Turkmenistan along the "Turgundi–Herat–Kandahar–Spin-Buldak" corridor, further aligning itself with regional energy and infrastructure projects.
Beyond its national interests, Kazakhstan’s potential entry into TAPI could serve as a catalyst for broader participation, particularly by Russia. The country has been increasing its presence in Central Asia’s energy sector, notably through the 2023 gas union between Russia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan. This initiative enables Moscow to leverage existing infrastructure to expand its influence and, potentially, redirect Russian gas supplies through TAPI.
Russia has long expressed interest in the TAPI project. In early 2023, Russian special representative Zamir Kabulov visited Kabul to discuss economic cooperation, including potential energy projects. That same year, Gazprom announced plans to modify Soviet-era pipeline networks, allowing Russian gas to flow through Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan before integrating with TAPI’s route to South Asia.
Russian companies have already played a role in TAPI’s construction. In 2021, they provided Turkmenistan with pipeline supplies worth $300mn, including compressors and other key components. With Kazakhstan’s possible involvement, Russia may find a direct pathway into the project, further consolidating its influence in Central and South Asian energy markets.
However, security concerns remain a significant challenge, particularly in Afghanistan and its neighboring territories. The stability of the pipeline’s operations is uncertain, potentially prompting Moscow to deepen its engagement in regional security matters, including in Turkmenistan and Afghanistan.
Additionally, TAPI’s progress will depend on resolving geopolitical complexities, particularly at the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, where cross-border tensions could impact the pipeline’s future.
The TAPI project, inaugurated on September 10, 2024, aims to transport natural gas from Turkmenistan’s Galkynysh gas field through Afghanistan to Pakistan and India. The pipeline, which was launched at the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan border with the participation of Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedov and Taliban officials, seeks to deliver 33bn cubic meters (bcm) of gas annually. Of this, 5% will go to Afghanistan, and 47.5% each to Pakistan and India.
Once operational, Afghanistan is expected to earn $1bn annually in transit fees and create over 12,000 jobs, fostering industrial growth in provinces such as Herat, Helmand, and Kandahar.
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