Central Asia is set to be a hotspot for significant international events this year, including inaugural summits with the European Union and Japan. As we approach mid-year, several key trends are emerging that warrant close attention in 2024: major powers are vying for influence and access to the region's abundant resources; watch for the progress of major infrastructure ventures like the Trans-Afghanistan and China-Uzbekistan-Kyrgyzstan railroads; look out for enhanced collaboration on emergency response and food security initiatives.
1. Competition of major powers for the resources of Central Asian countries
Since the second half of last year, Western leaders have been actively visiting Central Asian countries to establish partnerships to gain access to the region's energy resources and critical raw materials. Quite telling is the inclusion of this point of cooperation in the joint declaration after the Germany-Central Asia summit, and during the visit of British Foreign Secretary David Cameron to Kazakhstan, the parties signed a comprehensive agreement on strategic partnership, trade and cooperation, which includes cooperation in the field of critical minerals. In March this year, Kazakhstan and the UK signed the Critical Minerals Roadmap, and in April this year Uzbekistan and the European Union established a strategic partnership on critical minerals. Other Central Asian countries are also actively engaging with the European Union in this area. For example, Turkmenistan intends to expand its cooperation with the European Union in the energy sector and therefore organized the International Forum on Attracting Foreign Investment in Turkmenistan's Energy Sector (TEIF 2024) at the end of April. In addition to the traditional players such as the US, EU, PRC and Russia, the Gulf countries and Japan are also trying to gain access to the resources of Central Asian countries. Exploration, extraction and processing of critical resources will be an area where the interests of major and medium-sized powers in Central Asia may collide. Traditionally, Russia and China have been the leaders in the extraction and especially transportation of resources from Central Asian countries, but now new players are trying to enter the scene who also want to gain access to the region's resources and develop alternative ways of supplying them.
2. Implementation of major transportation projects and interests of major players
In addition to the well-known Middle Corridor through Kazakhstan, the implementation of the Trans-Afghan Railway and the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway is actively promoted in Central Asia. Both projects play a key role in alleviating the landlockedness of Central Asian countries. But it is now important for Central Asian countries to attract international investment in the implementation of transport corridors in Central Asia, as the interests of the major players in the region actually overlap here. In fact, all major powers are interested in implementing major transportation projects in Central Asia, but to different degrees in different projects. For example, the Russian side has recently shown more interest in the realization of the North-South project through Azerbaijan and Iran, when it is important for Central Asian countries to attract more investment in the trans-Afghan railroad in order to establish ties with South Asia. The issue of joint cooperation of Central Asian countries in the implementation and promotion of these transport projects also arises separately. Increased international attention to transport projects in Central Asia has contributed to the signing of an agreement on strengthening land transport interconnectivity in Central Asia. But at the moment, in order to attract more investment in the implementation of major transport projects, Central Asian countries should strengthen coordination of the promotion of these projects on international platforms, in particular at the summits "C5+1".
3. Integration processes in Central Asia
The agreement on strengthening land transport interconnectivity in Central Asia is one of the few in recent times that has been signed by all 5 countries of the region, which shows the interest of the Central Asian leadership in promoting this area of cooperation. Strengthening cooperation in the field of transport should have a spillover effect and stimulate the countries of the region to develop other areas, for example, after transport it is necessary to strengthen cooperation between business communities, to create joint chains of production along the transport routes. But there are certain difficulties in further promotion of intra-regional integration. It is currently unknown whether the Council of National Coordinators for the Consultative Meetings of the Heads of State of Central Asia is functioning. The decision to establish the Council at the fifth meeting on September 14, 2023, but nothing is known about its activities so far. In 2024, the 6th Consultative Meeting of Central Asian Leaders will be held in Kazakhstan. According to the text of the joint statement on the results of the 5th summit of the leaders of the region, the first ministerial Digital Conference and the First Samarkand International Forum on climate issues are also planned for 2024. The main areas of cooperation emphasized by Central Asian leaders in this document include promoting regional security and stability, particularly through counter-terrorism efforts, and enhancing trade and economic cooperation by creating favorable conditions for investment, transport, and energy. They also prioritize cultural and humanitarian exchanges to foster mutual understanding while improving education and public health for the prosperity of their societies.
4. Energy cooperation: strengthening internal-external cooperation
Central Asia will increasingly be perceived through the prism of access to energy resources and their transportation. Moreover, the level of cooperation both within the region and with external actors is quite surprising. Central Asia is undergoing a significant transformation in the energy sector through regional cooperation projects and efforts to stabilize Afghanistan's energy situation amidst ongoing challenges. In a landmark collaboration, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan have agreed to jointly build the Kambarata hydroelectric power plant (HPP-1) on the Naryn River in Kyrgyzstan. This ambitious project, outlined in an intergovernmental agreement, will involve the creation of a joint-stock company with Kyrgyzstan holding 34% ownership and Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan each holding 33%. Despite the distribution of ownership, Kambarata HPP-1 will become Kyrgyzstan's property after construction. Financing will be sourced from the participating countries, international banks, and financial institutions. The feasibility study will determine the project's total cost and timeframe.
This plant is crucial for the region's renewable energy goals and energy security. The project capacity is planned to be 1860 MW, providing approximately 5.6 billion kWh of electricity annually, with a 256-meter dam and a reservoir volume of 5.4 billion cubic meters. The plant is expected to be fully operational in ten years, but the first hydro unit should be active within four years.
Alongside this, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are working with Azerbaijan to create an energy corridor to Europe. This strategic partnership aims to establish a high-voltage cable under the Caspian Sea to diversify Europe's energy sources and tap into abundant renewable resources in Central Asia. Leveraging Azerbaijan's strategic location and existing infrastructure, the plan is to export up to 5 GW of electricity annually. However, the success of this initiative depends on geopolitical and technical factors, including the involvement of littoral Caspian Sea states, particularly Iran and Russia.
Afghanistan's energy landscape remains a challenge but also an opportunity for regional collaboration. The Taliban's rise to power in 2021 deepened an already existing energy crisis. Afghanistan depends heavily on electricity imports from Central Asia, especially Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. Trade volumes with these neighbors have been steady despite initial disruptions following the Taliban takeover. In February 2024, Afghanistan paid $627 million to settle energy debts with neighboring countries. Despite these efforts, the reliance on expensive imports and insufficient infrastructure perpetuates energy insecurity.
Regional energy projects like the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline and Central Asia-South Asia (CASA-1000) transmission line offer hope for Afghanistan's energy sector. However, security, funding, and geopolitical tensions pose significant hurdles. While the Taliban have stabilized some projects, including turbines at the Salma HPP and the Kajaki HPP, broader challenges remain, such as tariff and ownership disputes.
5. New challenges to food security due to climate change, emergencies and changing geopolitical situations
Food security in Central Asia is shaped by a confluence of global and regional factors, such as the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the conflict in Ukraine, and the effects of climate change. Elevated food prices are a significant challenge, particularly for nations like Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan that rely heavily on imports. Supply chain disruptions have also exacerbated food insecurity, even in traditionally grain-exporting countries like Kazakhstan. This inflation is partly due to high international prices being transmitted to domestic markets, coupled with the rising costs of production inputs like fertilizer and fuel.
Climate change further complicates this issue, as irregular precipitation and temperature extremes diminish agricultural yields. Proactive adaptation measures and emissions reductions are crucial to mitigate these impacts. Collaborative initiatives, such as China's Belt and Road project and the Global Gateway, could facilitate regional cooperation to address these challenges. Emergencies, for example in the form of floods, further exacerbate the situation. Over 117,000 people were evacuated due to recent floods in Kazakhstan, indicating the urgency of the problem.
Malnutrition, stunting, and wasting remain concerns, despite overall hunger levels being relatively low. Women and children are particularly affected, and these problems are often rooted in economic instability and limited diet diversity. Regional initiatives focus on improving access to healthy foods and reducing anemia.
In addition to these structural issues, restrictive trade policies are exacerbating food supply disruptions across the Europe and Central Asia region. Such measures, intended to stabilize local markets, often backfire by driving up prices and undermining regional cooperation. The World Bank advocates for increased trade facilitation and sustainable investments in agriculture to counter these problems while supporting producers.
Written by: Eldaniz Gusseinov
Eldaniz Gusseinov, is a Non-Resident Research Fellow at Haydar Aliyev Center for Eurasian Studies of the Ibn Haldun University, Istanbul.
Comments (0)