Uzbekistan’s economy is projected to expand by 5.8% in 2025 and 5.9% in 2026, maintaining its status as a regional growth leader, according to World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report. These forecasts align with the October 2024 predictions and reflect the country’s consistent growth trajectory.
The latest Global Economic Prospects report, sheds light on global trends, forecasts, and risks. The report positions Uzbekistan as one of the most dynamic economies in the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region, with a robust outlook for the years ahead.
In 2024, Uzbekistan achieved 6% GDP growth, demonstrating economic resilience despite external challenges. By the end of 2024, Uzbekistan’s GDP was expected to reach $115bn, a 6.5% annual increase.
While Uzbekistan remains the fastest-growing economy in Central Asia, its neighbors also exhibit steady growth:
- Kazakhstan: GDP growth is expected to reach 4.7% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026, driven by increased oil production.
- Kyrgyzstan: Consistent growth of 4.5% is forecasted for both 2025 and 2026, supported by remittance inflows.
- Tajikistan: Following 8% growth in 2024, Tajikistan’s economy is projected to expand by 6% in 2025 and 5% in 2026, with stable remittance flows from Russia.
Across the ECA region, growth is expected to slow to 2.5% in 2025, down from 3.2% in 2024, primarily due to weaker economic performance in Russia and Turkey. Excluding these two economies and Ukraine, regional growth is forecasted to average 3.3% in 2025-2026.
Global economic conditions and geopolitical developments continue to influence the region:
- Inflation: Although inflationary pressures in the ECA region are easing due to declining commodity prices, core inflation remains elevated, posing risks to purchasing power.
- Public Debt: Approximately half of the ECA countries are expected to see rising public debt levels by 2025, adding fiscal challenges to the region.
- Energy Prices: Fluctuations in energy prices may impact resource-dependent economies like Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan.
The World Bank also highlights several risks that could hinder economic performance in Uzbekistan and the broader region:
- Geopolitical Instability: Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine continues to create uncertainty and disrupt trade.
- Trade Barriers: Potential restrictions on exports and imports could dampen trade and investment flows.
- Climate Challenges: Central Asia’s vulnerability to climate change, including extreme weather events such as droughts and floods, threatens economic stability and food security.
Uzbekistan’s strong growth is underpinned by strategic investments, structural reforms, and increased economic diversification. Key drivers include:
- Investment Climate: Government policies to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) and enhance the private sector’s role.
- Remittance Inflows: Stable remittances from Uzbek workers abroad have supported private consumption and overall economic activity.
- Infrastructure Projects: Significant investments in transportation, energy, and industrial sectors continue to bolster growth.
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