In April 2025, inflation expectations in Uzbekistan remained unchanged from March, with the population anticipating a 14.2% increase in prices over the next 12 months, according to a report by the Central Bank of Uzbekistan.
Population Expectations
Surveys conducted by the Central Bank revealed that most citizens cited rising fuel and energy prices, as well as transportation costs, as the key drivers of inflation. On the other hand, fewer people pointed to exchange rate fluctuations, rising food prices, or wage increases as factors influencing price hikes.
Notably, people working in the manufacturing sector expressed the highest inflation concerns, with an expectation of 17.2%. Other sectors with inflation expectations higher than the general 14.2% included:
- Construction: 15.9%
- State Organizations: 14.8%
- Transportation Services: 14.8%
- Pensioners: 14.8%
- Science and Education: 14.6%
- Information Technology and Media: 14.6%
The highest inflation expectations were recorded in Tashkent, where the rate stood at 16.9%. Other regions with inflation expectations higher than the national average included:
- Fergana Region: 15.6%
- Tashkent Region: 15.4%
- Andijan Region: 15.3%
- Khorezm Region: 15%
- Namangan Region: 14.7%
- Syrdarya Region: 14.6%
Inflation expectations were notably higher among those with incomes above UZS 5mn ($388). Specifically:
- Those earning UZS 7-10mn ($543-$775) expected inflation to be 16.4%.
- Those earning UZS 10-15mn ($775-$1,167) expected 14.7%.
- Those earning more than UZS 15mn ($1,167) expected inflation to reach 18.4%.
Business Expectations
Among business entities, inflation expectations decreased slightly from 13% in March to 12.8% in April. However, entrepreneurs were more concerned about the rising costs of utilities, fuel, energy resources, taxes, and raw materials.
Businesses in the construction sector had the highest inflation expectations at 15%. Other sectors with inflation concerns above the general level included cafes and restaurants (13.5%), healthcare (13.3%), transportation services (13.3%), culture (13.2%), and science and education (13%).
The highest inflation expectations for businesses were found in the Samarkand region, where the rate reached 13.8%. Other regions with inflation expectations above the national average included:
- Fergana Region: 13.7%
- Tashkent City: 13.6%
- Bukhara Region: 13.6%
- Khorezm Region: 13.4%
- Jizzakh Region: 13.3%
- Syrdarya Region: 13.2%
- Navoi Region: 13.2%
- Surkhandarya Region: 13.1%
Perceived Inflation by the Population
In April, the population’s perceived inflation rate increased slightly to 14.4%, up from 14.3% in March. The highest perceived inflation was recorded in Tashkent, at 18.2%. Other regions where perceived inflation exceeded the national average included:
- Andijan Region: 16.4%
- Fergana Region: 16.1%
- Tashkent Region: 15.6%
- Syrdarya Region: 15.1%
- Khorezm Region: 15%
- Namangan Region: 14.7%
Throughout March and April, many respondents noted significant price increases in basic goods and services. Although meat and milk prices were among the most reported increases, fewer people reported rises in these categories compared to previous months. In contrast, there was a notable increase in prices for electricity, natural gas, gasoline, fruits and vegetables, vegetable oil, and medicines.
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