The IMF projects robust growth rates for Central Asian economies, with growth expected to reach 3.9% in 2024, increasing to 4.8% in 2025. The Fund's economic outlook for the CA region underscores an uneven recovery, with expectations of varied trajectories among economies in the region amidst high uncertainty. While inflation is receding in line with global trends, vulnerabilities persist, accompanied by a heightened set of downside risks. This comparative analysis provides insights into the diverse economic trajectories across Central Asia.
GDP growth rate
While Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan anticipate relatively stable growth rates, with Kazakhstan rebounding to 5.6% growth in 2025 and Uzbekistan maintaining consistency around the mid-5% range, Tajikistan experiences a downturn in growth, projected to slow to 6.5% in 2024 and further decline to 4.5% in 2025. This contrasts with Kyrgyzstan's relatively stable growth projections of 4.4% in 2024 and 4.2% in 2025.
Kazakhstan's economic slowdown in 2024 is primarily attributed to delays in the expansion of the Tengiz oil field, a crucial factor in its economic performance due to its significant contribution to the country's GDP. In contrast, Uzbekistan's sustained growth reflects the success of its ambitious reform agenda aimed at liberalizing the economy and attracting foreign investment.
Kyrgyzstan exhibits resilience amidst challenges, with a projected growth rate of 4.4% in 2024 and 4.2% in 2025, indicating a relatively steady performance despite its smaller economy. However, the country's growth potential is constrained by factors such as political instability and external shocks, which can hinder investor confidence and economic development.
Turkmenistan faces significant challenges, characterized by low growth rates of around 2% for both 2024 and 2025. This subdued growth is attributed to the country's heavy reliance on hydrocarbon exports, which exposes it to fluctuations in global oil and gas markets. Additionally, Turkmenistan's centralized economic model and limited diversification efforts contribute to its vulnerability to external shocks and economic stagnation. While Tajikistan's growth rates, although lower than in previous years, remain higher compared to Turkmenistan.
Made by
Consumer Price Index
In terms of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan demonstrate a declining trend, with projections indicating a decrease in the CPI over the years. This downward trend is a result of prudent monetary policies and structural reforms aimed at stabilizing prices and enhancing macroeconomic stability.
Conversely, Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan exhibit fluctuations in CPI, with Kyrgyzstan experiencing a significant increase to 11.9% in 2022 before projecting a decrease to 8.6% by 2028. Turkmenistan witnessed the highest spike in CPI among Central Asian countries, reaching 19.5% in 2022, followed by fluctuations with CPI projected to fall to 5.9% in 2024 before rising to 10.5% in 2028.
-DcIFtCdz.jpg)
These fluctuations underscore the challenges faced by these countries in managing inflation and ensuring price stability amidst economic uncertainties and external pressures.
Unemployment rate
Unemployment rates in Central Asian countries have shown varied trends from 2023 to 2025. Kazakhstan witnessed a significant reduction in unemployment from 4.8% to 3.4%. Similarly, Uzbekistan experienced a decrease from 8.4% to 7.4%. However, Kyrgyzstan’s unemployment rate remained steady at 9%. Data for Tajikistan and Turkmenistan are unavailable.
Overall, while each country in Central Asia faces its unique set of challenges and opportunities, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan demonstrate more stable economic growth trajectories compared to Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan, which face greater volatility and slower growth rates due to structural constraints and external factors.
Follow Daryo's official Instagram and Twitter pages to keep current on world news.
Comments (0)