The National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) reduced the base rate by 25 basis points to 14.5%, with a corridor of +/- 1 percentage point. This comes after the NBK kept the base rate at 14.75% on April 12.
The NBK's inflation forecast for 2024 remains at 7.5–9.5%. For 2025, the forecast is set at 5.5–7.5%. By 2026, as fiscal stimulus decreases and tighter monetary policies are fully implemented, inflation is expected to reach 5% and stay within the 5–6% range.
The economic growth forecast for Kazakhstan in 2024 is unchanged at 3.5–4.5%. However, due to the delayed completion of the Tengizchevroil expansion project to late 2025, the growth forecast for 2025 was adjusted to 4.8–5.8%, and for 2026, it has been revised to 4.9–5.9%.
The next decision regarding the base rate by the National Bank of Kazakhstan's Monetary Policy Committee will be announced on July 12, 2024.
Meanwhile, the Central Bank of Uzbekistan, in its meeting on April 25, 2024, decided to keep the main interest rate at an annual level of 14%. This decision aligns with the Executive Board's assessment of monetary conditions relative to the upper bound of the updated inflation forecast corridor. The Board noted that the impact of key monetary factors on inflationary pressures is decreasing.
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