Cities across Central Asia are sweltering under intensifying heatwaves — and for Uzbekistan, it’s more than just uncomfortable weather. It’s a growing public health emergency. By 2090, heat-related deaths could spike to between 10,000 and 23,000 annually in major cities like Tashkent and Astana, according to a new World Bank report. The findings paint a stark picture of a region on the frontlines of climate change, urging governments to act before lives, livelihoods, and entire infrastructures are pushed past the tipping point.

“As temperatures continue to rise and heatwaves become more common, cities across the region are becoming increasingly unlivable, especially for older adults, children, and low-income populations,” Sameh Wahba, World Bank Regional Director for Europe and Central Asia voiced. “But cities also hold the keys to action, like investing in tree-planting for greater canopy cover and retrofitting schools, hospitals, and housing stock for passive cooling.”

Uzbekistan: A Hotspot in the Making

Among the 222 cities studied in the report, Uzbekistan’s Termez and Turtkul are already among the hottest, with future projections indicating worsening conditions. For instance, Nukus is expected to face 77 days of extreme heat stress per year by 2090. These are days when wet-bulb globe temperatures (WBGT) exceed 30.5°C, rendering even light outdoor activity unsafe.

Turtkul and Termez are also projected to experience significant increases in “hot days,” defined as days exceeding the 95th percentile of historical maximum temperatures. These trends, compounded by dense urban development and sparse vegetation, will amplify the urban heat island effect, trapping heat and intensifying health and infrastructure risks.

On July 15, Uzhydromet issued an urgent bulletin warning of an intense heatwave expected to sweep across Uzbekistan from July 17 to 20. Hot air masses moving in from the south are set to push temperatures to extreme levels.

Forecasts indicate that daytime temperatures will reach 40–43°C in most parts of the country on July 17, rising to 44–45°C in the southern and desert regions between July 18 and 20. Wind speeds may increase to 13–18 m/s, with dusty conditions expected in some areas.

This comes shortly after an earlier heatwave from July 2 to 5, during which the emergency medical service received over 247,000 calls — 172,676 of them urgent, and 65,163 related to chronic illnesses. Authorities urge residents to take precautions and limit exposure to the extreme heat.

Central Asia's Climate Divide

While all Central Asian countries are warming faster than the global average, there are notable differences in the scale and speed of change. Cities like Petropavl and Semey in Kazakhstan are projected to warm by more than 3°C by 2090, with over 60 additional hot days per year. Semey, Petropavl, and Oral will transition from cool to temperate or warm climate zones, dramatically shifting living conditions and resource demands. 

Cities such as Dashoguz and Turkmenabat in Turkmenistan face up to 96 days of extreme heat stress annually by 2090. These figures are among the highest in the region. Although currently cooler, mountainous nations like Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are not exempt. 

Heat-related economic losses could cut GDP by up to 1.3%, largely due to labor disruptions. Beyond Nukus, cities like Turtkul and Termez in Uzbekistan will also face substantial increases in the number of dangerously hot days, compounded by urban form and lack of green space.

Economic Fallout

The World Bank highlighted how heat is not only a health hazard but a significant economic threat:

• In 2023, the rising heat led to the loss of over 87,000 full-time jobs across the region. Uzbekistan accounted for more than 22,000 of these job losses, especially in labor-intensive sectors such as agriculture, construction, and services.
• By 2050, annual heat-related productivity losses in cities like Ashgabat could exceed 2% of GDP.
• In Kyrgyzstan, about 200 km of roads are damaged each year due to extreme temperatures, disrupting logistics and increasing infrastructure costs.

By 2050, nearly all cities in Central Asia will experience 40–70 more hot days per year than in the early 2000s. By the end of the century, extreme heatwaves could last up to two months, with peak temperatures 4°C higher than today.

According to the World Bank’s modeling:

• Tashkent and Astana could face a tenfold increase in heat-related deaths if no action is taken.
• Without adaptation, productivity losses alone could slash up to 1.3% of GDP in countries like Tajikistan and North Macedonia.
• In Turkmenabat, 96 days of extreme heat stress are projected annually by 2090.

Urban Heat: A Deadly and Costly Threat

Extreme heat is now among the most lethal and underestimated climate hazards. Unlike floods or storms, it leaves no visible trace but causes widespread suffering. The report warns that heat-related deaths could double or triple in many cities without adaptation, placing extreme heat on par with major public health crises.

Furthermore, extreme heat reduces labor productivity, especially in outdoor sectors like agriculture, construction, and transport. Machines break down, power grids falter, and hospitals get overwhelmed. By 2050, economic losses from heat stress could reach 2.5% of GDP in the hardest-hit areas.

In Uzbekistan, with its reliance on energy-intensive infrastructure and outdoor labor, these effects could have long-term implications for growth, inequality, and public health.

Cities like Astana, Bishkek, and Tashkent are among the worst-affected by urban heat exposure. The urban heat island effect—where dense cities become significantly hotter than surrounding rural areas—compounds the problem. In Ashgabat, excess heat-related deaths already reach 25–28 per 100,000 people annually, the highest in the region.

Infrastructure and Inequality

Much of the region's infrastructure, including Uzbekistan’s, was built during the Soviet era and is poorly adapted to rising temperatures. Roads, energy systems, and water supply networks are vulnerable to overheating. Cities already suffering from poor air circulation and limited green cover will experience worsening conditions. 

The urban heat island (UHI) effect means city centers can be 10°C hotter than surrounding rural areas. Areas with dense concrete structures and little vegetation trap heat, especially at night. In Termez and Turtkul, where green space is limited, these dynamics are particularly dangerous.

Rising Mortality and Health Risks

In Central Asia, many urban areas are already seeing the effects. Nighttime temperatures often do not drop below 25°C, reducing the body’s ability to recover. Heatwaves, now longer and more frequent, worsen respiratory conditions and increase cardiovascular incidents. The report estimates that some cities may experience 10,000 or more cumulative heat-related deaths by 2050 if no action is taken.

The elderly, outdoor workers, and low-income groups are most vulnerable, especially in poorly ventilated homes without air conditioning. The report highlights that only 28% of countries in the region have comprehensive heat-health action plans, leaving millions exposed.

What Can Be Done: A Regional Action Agenda

The World Bank proposes a 10-point strategy across four pillars: Places, People, Infrastructure, and Institutions.

1. Make urban spaces cooler:

• Expand green spaces and tree planting, especially in underserved neighborhoods.
• Retrofit buildings for passive cooling.
• Protect natural airflow corridors in urban planning.

2. Protect vulnerable populations:

• Establish early warning systems.
• Provide cooling centers and access to health services.
• Implement occupational safety standards for outdoor labor.

3. Adapt critical infrastructure:

• Upgrade energy grids and transport systems.
• Use heat-tolerant materials in construction.
• Retrofit schools, hospitals, and public buildings.

4. Embed heat resilience in governance:

• Include heat stress in national budgets and urban plans.
• Appoint chief heat officers or task forces.
• Create financing mechanisms for local adaptation.

Adaptation is not just necessary — it is cost-effective. According to the report, timely investments could prevent up to 80% of heat-related deaths and halve productivity losses. For every euro invested, returns range from €2 to €20, depending on the intervention.

Cities like Tashkent, Ashgabat, and Dushanbe must move quickly to integrate these strategies. Retrofitting buildings, improving public green space, and ensuring institutional leadership can make the difference between a livable and unlivable future.

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