Uzbekistan's government has released its macroeconomic forecast for 2025, projecting a 6.0% economic growth rate. Growth is expected to reach 6.1% in 2026 and 6.3% in 2027. These figures reflect continued progress across key sectors, supported by targeted reforms and investments, despite global economic challenges and inflationary pressures.
In absolute terms, Uzbekistan’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is projected to expand significantly over the forecast period:
- 2023: 1.2 trillion soums ($93mn)
- 2024: 1.4 trillion soums ($110mn)
- 2025: 1.6 trillion soums ($127mn)
- 2026: 1.9 trillion soums ($146mn)
- 2027: 2.1 trillion soums ($166mn)
by Khadicha Abdurashidova
Sectoral Perfomance
Growth across economic sectors is expected to remain strong in 2025, driven by industrial production, construction, market services, and agriculture.
- Industrial production: Forecast to grow by 6.1%.
- Construction: Projected to expand by 14.2%, reflecting ongoing infrastructure projects.
- Market services: Anticipated to increase by 14.5%, highlighting the sector's critical role in economic diversification.
- Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries: Predicted to grow by 4.1%, maintaining stability despite global agricultural challenges.
Inflation Managment
Inflation reduction remains a top policy priority. Although global inflation is projected to decline steadily, most countries, including Uzbekistan, may not achieve target levels until 2027. Uzbekistan's inflation rate is expected to decrease from an estimated 9% in 2024 to a range of 5-6% by 2027. This improvement aligns with international trends and domestic economic reforms aimed at stabilizing prices.
Trade and Export Growth
Uzbekistan's foreign trade turnover is set to grow steadily. Exports of goods and services are forecasted to reach $71.2bn in 2025, a 6% increase compared to 2024. This growth reflects the government’s efforts to strengthen international trade relations and diversify export markets.
Infrastructure Investments
Significant investments in infrastructure will drive economic and social development. Priority areas include:
- Neighborhood development: Installing water pumps and solar panels, particularly in underdeveloped areas.
- Energy infrastructure: Expanding renewable energy projects to reduce dependency on traditional energy sources.
- Digital infrastructure: Enhancing internet connectivity to support economic modernization.
Vision 2026-2027
By 2027, Uzbekistan aims to position itself among countries with above-average incomes. The government’s economic strategy emphasizes sustainability, resilience, and inclusivity, ensuring that growth benefits all segments of the population.
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