Uzbekistan’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose sharply in 2024, with essential goods and services showing significant inflationary trends. According to data from the Statistics Agency of Uzbekistan, the CPI experienced a year-on-year increase reaching 10.2% in October. This rise, seen across housing, utilities, healthcare, and transportation, continues to strain household budgets as costs for essential services increase.
Uzbekistan’s month-on-month Consumer Price Index (CPI) from 2020 to 2024 reveals a steady decrease in inflationary pressure. In 2020, the monthly CPI increase was at its highest, reaching 1.44%, but by 2024, it had dropped to 0.84%. Each successive year shows a slight decline in monthly CPI compared to the previous year, indicating a consistent effort toward reducing inflation rates.
Housing and Utilities Dominate Inflation Drivers
The housing and utilities sector substantially impacted the CPI, recording an annual increase of 40.1%, compared to 4.6% the previous year. The rise in energy costs and maintenance fees for water, electricity, and gas services reflects the burden of higher prices in these essential areas, disproportionately affecting low-income households.
Services Sector Sees Unprecedented Inflation
The services sector reported a significant CPI increase, up 28.7% annually. Healthcare costs were a primary factor, with outpatient services rising to 5.7% and inpatient services up to 3.5%. Education services, particularly in the private sector, also contributed, with preschool education increasing by 5.2% year-on-year.
Food Prices Reflect Mixed Trends, Seasonal Factors
Food prices overall rose by 2.2% year-on-year, with seasonal factors causing fluctuations. Rice, benefiting from the recent harvest, decreased by 3.1%, while dairy and eggs saw a more modest rise of 0.9%. Oils and fats added 0.05 percentage points to the CPI, reflecting continued price sensitivity to international markets.
Non-Food Products and Transportation Add to Inflation
Non-food items, including clothing, footwear, and household goods, showed an annual CPI increase of 8.1%. Rising material costs for household furniture, which increased by 5.8%, contributed to this trend. Transportation recorded a monthly CPI increase of 0.9% and an annual increase of 8.8%, with public transport and gasoline leading the costs in this category.
Economic Implications and Outlook
With a 10.2% year-on-year CPI increase, Uzbekistan faces significant inflationary pressures. Rising costs in utilities, healthcare, and essential goods may lead to reduced domestic spending, impacting economic growth. Experts suggest potential interventions, such as subsidies for essential services and policies to stabilize energy prices, to mitigate these inflationary pressures on households and foster economic stability.
Central Bank inflation figures
The Central Bank reports, that over the past five years, Uzbekistan’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) has demonstrated varied patterns in month-on-month and year-on-year inflation rates, reflecting changes in both global and domestic economic conditions. Monthly inflation has shown a seasonal trend, often rising in the earlier months of each year. For example, in 2024, monthly inflation rates ranged from 0.3% in February to a high of 2.8% in May. By comparison, 2023 experienced more steady monthly increases, with rates generally below 1.2% throughout the year.
Year-on-year inflation has demonstrated a steady increase overall, reaching 10.2% by October 2024 compared to lower rates in previous years. Notably, annual inflation rates in 2021 and 2022 hovered around 10.0% and 12.3%, respectively, reflecting an upward trend driven by both global pressures and domestic changes in service and goods costs. In contrast, 2019 and 2020 saw much higher volatility, with rates peaking at around 16% due to economic adjustments and reforms that affected prices across sectors. This year-over-year comparison highlights a shift toward stabilization but with continued inflationary pressures on essentials like utilities, healthcare, and transportation, contributing to Uzbekistan’s persistent inflationary landscape.
Central Bank of Uzbekistan postpones Inflation Target of 5% to Second Half of 2026
The Central Bank of Uzbekistan has postponed its 5% inflation target to the second half of 2026, presenting three economic scenarios through 2027. The Main Scenario projects inflation reduction, sustained global growth, high commodity prices, and domestic investment increases, with inflation anticipated to drop to 5% by late 2026 and GDP growth of 5.5–6.5% from 2025 to 2027. The Alternative Scenario anticipates higher external risks, like prolonged global inflation and economic fragmentation, with growth supported by fiscal measures, potentially reaching the 5% inflation target by early 2027. The Risk Scenario factors in climate impacts and energy imbalances, expecting higher inflation of 8–9% in 2025, with the target achieved by the end of 2027. Across all scenarios, the Central Bank plans to tighten monetary policy if necessary, aiming for stable inflation and long-term price stability.
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