Uzbekistan’s recently released 2025 budget report provides a detailed overview of the nation’s consolidated budget indicators, including revenue, expenditure, and deficit levels, from 2024 through 2027. The report reveals a positive fiscal trend, with steady increases in revenue and expenditure alongside a gradual reduction in the budget deficit relative to GDP.
According to the document, “The goal is to ensure sustainable fiscal policy through careful management of revenue and expenditures while maintaining a balanced deficit level to support economic growth.”
Revenue Growth Outlook
Revenue is projected to grow consistently over the next few years, building on past gains. In 2023, Uzbekistan’s revenue reached $25.15 bn. For 2024, revenue is expected to climb further to $29.52 bn, with additional increases to $33.69 bn in 2025. By 2027, revenue is forecasted to reach $44.16 bn. This upward trend reflects the government’s efforts to improve tax collection and broaden the tax base.
The report highlights, “Revenue growth will be sustained by enhancing tax administration and broadening the tax base, as well as through ongoing economic reforms aimed at boosting GDP.”
Expenditure Projections
Alongside revenue, expenditure is also set to rise, reflecting the government’s continued focus on social programs and infrastructure. In 2023, expenditure totaled $29.77 bn. For 2024, it is expected to increase to $33.98 bn, with further rises projected at $37.54 bn in 2025 and $49.17 bn by 2027. The government notes that these funds will support critical areas such as healthcare, education, and infrastructure, which are essential for sustainable growth.
“The priority remains on social welfare and infrastructure, which are crucial for long-term economic stability,” states the report.
Budget Deficit: Gradual Reduction Relative to GDP
The budget deficit is projected to remain stable and manageable over the next few years, even as expenditures grow. In 2023, the deficit was $4.63 bn, or 5% of GDP. Moving forward, the government aims to reduce the deficit, forecasting $4.47 bn in 2024, $3.85 bn in 2025, and $5.01 bn in 2027. Notably, the deficit as a percentage of GDP is expected to fall from -4% in 2024 to a steady -3% from 2025 onward.
“Maintaining a controlled deficit level of 3% of GDP from 2025 onwards is crucial to ensure fiscal sustainability and support economic resilience,” the report emphasizes.
Strategic Implications
Uzbekistan’s 2025 budget projections underscore a balanced approach to fiscal policy, aiming to foster economic growth through increased public investment while maintaining a sustainable deficit. This approach is expected to enhance economic stability, positioning the nation to better withstand external economic pressures. As the report outlines, “By managing the deficit carefully and prioritizing essential expenditures, Uzbekistan aims to foster a robust economic environment conducive to sustained growth.”
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