International credit rating agency Fitch Ratings has assigned the capital of Uzbekistan, Tashkent, a long-term issuer default rating (IDR) of ‘BB-’ with a Stable Outlook, marking the city’s first independent international assessment since the resumption of cooperation with Fitch in late 2023.
According to the Tashkent city administration, the rating reflects a "solid financial position and stability of key macroeconomic indicators."
The hokimiyat emphasized that Fitch’s report acknowledged manageable debt levels and a growing revenue base — a signal, it said, of “financial responsibility and efficient management.”
However, a deeper analysis of Fitch’s full report paints a more nuanced picture of the city’s fiscal health.
Fitch's rating does not imply improvement, but rather the continuation of the status quo — a situation described by the agency as one with weak financial fundamentals. Despite the 'Stable' outlook, Fitch assessed the city’s risk profile as ‘Weaker’, citing high risks of a declining ability to cover debt service due to potential drops in revenue or rising expenditures between 2024 and 2028.
The agency evaluated Tashkent’s Revenue Robustness and Adjustability as "Weaker." In 2023, taxes made up 50% of the capital’s revenue, while transfers from the central government accounted for another 33%. With little fiscal autonomy, Tashkent's revenue potential is constrained. Fitch noted the city's limited ability to respond to economic downturns, adding that most revenue sources are already maximized.
Spending remains equally inflexible. Fitch highlighted that over 80% of Tashkent’s budget for 2023-2024 was tied to mandatory expenditures, including salaries (about 19%), which are indexed to inflation. With inflation averaging 12% from 2019 to 2023, the city’s expenditure sustainability and adjustability were also rated as "Weaker."
Fitch cited concerns about liquidity robustness, largely due to restricted access to capital markets, a volatile local currency, and reliance on government-related entities (GREs) and public-private partnership (PPP) obligations. The city’s cash balance at the end of 2023 stood at UZS 822.5bn ($63.7mn) — mostly earmarked and unavailable for general use.
Tashkent’s debt payback ratio is projected to remain below 9x by 2028, keeping it within acceptable levels under Fitch’s base case. However, exposure to foreign-currency-denominated debt increases the city's vulnerability to exchange rate fluctuations.
Despite systemic weaknesses, Fitch rated Tashkent's financial profile in the ‘aa’ category, based on favorable debt and operating metrics. The city’s operating balance is expected to average UZS 1.376 trillion ($107mn) over 2024-2028 — a decline from UZS 2.233 trillion ($173mn) in 2023, but still supported by steady tax revenues, projected to rise to UZS 12.182 trillion by 2028.
The city also plans to invest UZS 2.642 trillion ($205mn) annually in capital expenditures to develop infrastructure and support long-term economic growth.
Tashkent was previously rated BB- from 2019 until Fitch suspended cooperation in December 2023, citing termination of disclosure and cooperation by the city administration. Following a decision by the Tashkent City Council on December 29, 2023, the partnership was renewed, leading to the current reissuance of the rating.
The city administration has highlighted the rating as a boost to international credibility and investment attractiveness.
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