Uzbekistan’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 6.2% in the first quarter of 2025, according to a forecast by the Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR). The projection is based on advanced analytical methods, economic trend analysis, and sectoral development data.
Despite global macroeconomic uncertainties, Uzbekistan demonstrated stable growth in 2024, with the services sector, manufacturing, and construction driving expansion. The economy continued its positive trajectory into early 2025, supported by high investment activity and infrastructure projects.
The Business Activity Index (BII) increased by 8.4% in January 2025 compared to the previous month. A key factor behind this rise was a 33.3% surge in raw material purchases on commodity exchanges. Additionally, the number of operating economic entities grew by 1.1%, reflecting sustained business expansion.
Uzbekistan’s economic momentum was further confirmed by rising tax and customs revenues, export growth, and business creation. In January 2025:
- Tax revenues increased by 10.3%
- Customs revenues grew by 14.5%
- Exports of goods rose by 8.1%
- 6,126 new business entities were registered
The economic growth outlook for 2025 is supported by strong investment activity, major infrastructure projects in renewable energy and transport, and rising real incomes. Stable remittance inflows will boost consumer demand, while export revenues are expected to remain strong due to steady gold and commodity prices.
To forecast GDP, CERR utilized weekly monitoring of 250 key indicators, including Google search data in 20 economic categories, commodity price fluctuations, gross imports, and inventory levels. Based on available data, Uzbekistan’s GDP growth in 1Q25 is forecasted at 6.2%, with a range between 6.0% and 6.4%.
Global financial institutions have also provided their assessments of Uzbekistan’s economic performance in 2025. The World Bank forecasts GDP growth at 5.8%, while the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects a 5.7% increase. In September 2024, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) raised its forecast to 6.2%, highlighting strong growth in industry and construction. Meanwhile, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) expects Uzbekistan’s economy to expand by 6% in both 2025 and 2026.
At a recent government meeting, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev set ambitious economic targets for 2025, aiming to increase GDP to $120bn, investment volume to $42bn, and exports to $30bn.
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