Uzbekistan is expected to maintain its current economic growth trajectory until the end of 2023, according to a report from the Center for Economic Research and Reforms. The study utilized advanced forecasting tools recommended by the IMF, including data-driven forecasting and the "financial programming and policy" (FPP) approach.
Google search queries related to business and industry categories have increased by 17% this year, while interest in motor transport and food topics has also seen significant growth, rising by 17% and 29%, respectively.
Despite initial disruptions earlier in the year, industrial production has increased by 5.7% over the past nine months. Market services have experienced a 12% growth, and exports have risen by 23.5%.
The business activity index in September showed a 7.3% growth compared to August, signalling a strengthening economy. Household entity account operations have increased by 2.8%, and raw material purchases at UzRTSB have surged by nearly 14%.
Key factors contributing to growth include government support for economic sectors, productivity improvements through reforms, and robust foreign trade. Experts specifically highlighted the positive price dynamics of precious metals and copper in the foreign trade sphere.
CERR predicts a 20.8% increase in exports of goods and services by year-end, with imports expected to rise by 21.4%. Consumer spending is projected to increase by 4.8%, while gross investment is estimated to grow by 7.6%.
The centre's forecast suggests an annual GDP growth rate of 5.4-5.6%, slightly surpassing previous estimates of 5.5%. However, risks remain, including a potential economic slowdown in Uzbekistan's main trading partners and a decrease in cross-border remittances.
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