The Center for Economic Reforms and Research analyzed the development of Uzbekistan’s turbulent economy in 2022.
According to the State Statistics Committee, in spite of the difficulties in the economy of the main trading partners, price fluctuations in world markets, and disruption of transport and logistics chains, the gross domestic product (GDP) of Uzbekistan grew by 5.7% in 2022, which is less than in 2021 (7.4%).
In 2022, inflation in Uzbekistan accelerated from 10 percent in 2021 to 12.3 percent. This is mainly due to the increase in global prices, the products price spike in the countries that are the main suppliers to the market of Uzbekistan.
For example, inflation in Russia, which accounts for about 20 percent of the country's imports, increased from 8.4 percent in 2021 to 11.9 percent in 2022. In the same period, inflation in Kazakhstan (about 11% of Uzbekistan's imports) increased from 8.4% to 20.3%.
In Uzbekistan in 2022, the price of food products increased by 15.6 percent (13 percent in 2021) and the price of non-food products by 10.7 percent (7.8 percent). The growth of prices for paid services remained at an average level of 8.4 percent (7.7 percent).
At the end of the year, investments in fixed assets decreased by 0.5 percent. At the same time, the downward trend of centralized investments continues, their volume decreased by 23%.
Regulatory restrictions on government-guaranteed foreign investment, loans, and borrowing led to a 33 percent reduction. Also, investments from the budget decreased by more than 15 percent.
At the same time, a 4.9% increase in the volume of decentralized investments is observed. In particular, foreign direct investments and loans, which make up the majority of decentralized investments, increased by 1.3% and amounted to 8.5 billion dollars.
Investments directed at the expense of enterprises increased by 8.9%, private funds by 3.2%, commercial bank loans and other debt funds by 7.8%.
In general, during the year, the share of decentralized investments in the total volume of investments increased from 80.8% to 85.1%, while the share of centralized investments decreased from 19.2% to 14.9%, respectively.
According to the end of the year, an increase in the volume of production is observed in all sectors of the economy.
Industry growth slowed to 5.2 percent in 2021 (2021 growth was 8.8 percent). The largest increase was recorded in the electricity, gas supply, steam and air purification network by 12.7 percent. Production volume in industrial sectors increased by 5.3 percent.
Growth in the mining sector is slowing from 10.8 percent in 2021 to 2.1 percent in 2022. At the same time, the production of consumer goods accelerated significantly to 19.4% in 2022 (13.9% in 2021).
The service sector increased by 15.9% in 2022 (19.5% in 2021). Growth is observed in all sectors.
In 2022, financial services will grow at the highest rate - 29.3 percent, communication and information services - 25.5 percent, education - 15.3 percent, accommodation and food - 14.7 percent, rental and rental - 12 .2 percent, and health care — increased by 11.5 percent.
The volume of services provided in the transport sector increased by 12.4 percent, motor transport services by 6.5 percent, and passenger turnover by 5.6 percent. At the same time, the growth rate of cargo turnover slowed from 11.8 percent in 2021 to 0.5 percent in 2022. On the contrary, the growth rate of retail turnover accelerated from 12 percent in 2021 to 12.3 percent in 2022.
The growth rate in the construction sector actually remained at the level of last year at 6.6% compared to 6.8% in 2021.
In agriculture, the growth rate decreased slightly and reached 3.6% (in 2021, the increase in the volume of production was 4%).
Foreign trade activity continued to expand until the end of 2022. For the first time in the history of independence, the volume of foreign trade increased by 18.6% compared to 2021 and reached 50 billion dollars.
Also, export figures set a record in 2022, their volume increased by 15.9% to more than 19 billion dollars by the end of the year (in 2021, the increase was 10.3%). Imports increased by 20.4% during the period under review.
In 2022, the increase in the export volume is due to the increase in the supply of food products abroad by 24%, energy carriers and oil products by 34%, chemical products by 17%, and the supply of machinery and equipment by 41%.
Export of textile products increased by 8.6% and reached 3.2 billion dollars. The volume of export of services increased by 1.5 times and amounted to 4 billion dollars. It is noted that in 2022, as in 2021, gold was exported in the amount of 4.1 billion dollars.
The main increase in imports was machinery and equipment supplies by 16%, chemical products by 19%, food products by 35%, non-ferrous metals and products made from them by 45%, ferrous metals and products made from them by 18%, energy and petroleum products. had to increase by 15 percent. The volume of import of services increased by 43 percent.
In general, in 2022, despite many external and internal difficulties, the economy of Uzbekistan showed stability. The forecasted growth rates for 2022 have actually been achieved.
Naturally, shocks and the global situation had a negative impact on economic development. This led to a slowdown in economic growth and an acceleration of inflation.
At the same time, despite the difficulties in foreign economic activity, there was an increase in the export of raw materials and a diversification of the geography of the supply of products abroad.
According to the calculations of international experts and organizations, 2023 will cause serious problems for the world economy and the risk of a global recession against the background of the intensification of geopolitical confrontation, and the continued uncertainty regarding the situation related to the coronavirus.
Thus, the economy of Uzbekistan will continue to develop in unfavourable conditions this year. Taking into account external risks, GDP growth is expected to reach 5.3% in 2023 and accelerate in the following years.
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