The El Niño weather phenomenon, characterized by abnormal warming of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, is expected to persist through the first half of 2024, posing significant threats to agriculture across Latin America. The latest report from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has raised concerns about the potential impacts of this prolonged El Niño event on the region's vital agricultural sector.
As per the FAO report, the Pacific sea surface temperatures have surged in recent months, with a particular focus on "stronger warming along the South American coast." These temperature anomalies are driving unusual weather patterns, including irregular rainfall, which have the potential to wreak havoc on agricultural systems.
Forecasts for the first quarter of 2024 suggest that countries in the southern cone, such as Peru and Ecuador, as well as Mexico, will experience higher-than-average rainfall. Meanwhile, Brazil, Guyana, and Suriname are expected to continue facing dry conditions. The current dry spell affecting Central America, however, is anticipated to subside by the end of this year.
The FAO report underscores the vulnerability of the agriculture sector to these extreme weather patterns. Agriculture encompasses crops, livestock, forests, and fishing and can absorb a substantial portion of economic losses during severe weather events, accounting for up to 82% during droughts.
Key fish species like anchovies and tuna along the northern coast of Peru and southern Ecuador are particularly at risk due to the El Niño. Ecuadorian fishermen have reported a significant 30% decrease in tuna catches since February, highlighting the direct impact of this climate event on livelihoods and food security in the region.
In addition to the immediate threats posed by El Niño, Latin America is grappling with the effects of climate change, including heatwaves and erratic weather patterns, which further exacerbate the challenges faced by the agricultural sector. The simultaneous occurrence of these factors amplifies the risks to crops and livestock that are essential to the region's food supply.
In response to these pressing issues, the FAO has launched a plan to mobilize financial resources to support vulnerable communities in countries affected by extreme weather conditions. This initiative aims to provide assistance to those most affected by the ongoing El Niño and its subsequent impacts on agriculture, thereby mitigating potential food security crises.
El Niño in Central Asia
El Niño, though primarily affecting the tropical Pacific region, can have far-reaching consequences, even in Central Asia. The repercussions of El Niño in countries like Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan are diverse, encompassing drought, increased temperatures, forest fires, food security threats, health concerns, energy production issues, migration, and social and economic stress.
Reduced rainfall linked to El Niño leads to drought conditions and water scarcity in Central Asia, particularly impacting the flow of critical rivers like the Amu Darya and Syr Darya. Rising temperatures worsen water scarcity by increasing evaporation rates from rivers and reservoirs, while dry conditions elevate the risk of forest fires, jeopardizing ecosystems and air quality.
Reduced agricultural productivity endangers food security in countries heavily reliant on farming, and shifts in weather patterns can affect public health, promoting heat stress, dehydration, and disease spread. Energy production, largely dependent on hydropower, can suffer from diminished water availability during El Niño events, potentially leading to energy shortages and economic consequences.
The combination of water scarcity, food insecurity, and economic challenges can force population displacement and migration, straining resources and infrastructure. The compounding effects can result in heightened social and economic stress, potentially affecting the well-being and stability of affected populations. It's crucial to understand that while El Niño events heighten the risk of these threats, their actual occurrence can vary depending on the strength and duration of the El Niño event and the specific location within these countries.
Follow Daryo's official Instagram and Twitter pages to keep current on world news.
Comments (0)