As tensions escalate between Iran and Israel, concerns are rising over the potential regional impact of damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities. Climate scientist Erkin Abdulahatov has warned that a possible radioactive incident in Iran could have implications for neighboring countries, including Uzbekistan.
In light of recent reports of missile strikes on key Iranian nuclear sites such as Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan—reportedly targeted by the United States—experts are evaluating the transboundary risks posed by a potential radiological disaster.
Abdulahatov explained that while the likelihood of radioactive fallout reaching Uzbekistan is limited, it cannot be ruled out entirely.
"Yes, there is an effect," he said. "If radioactive radiation is released, then under certain weather conditions, it can be carried into Uzbekistan. This happens in 2–3 out of 15 synoptic processes that influence the country."
These specific atmospheric conditions, known as the 11th and 13th types of synoptic processes, include summer thermal depressions and low-gradient pressure systems.
“These processes are dominant during the summer months. So, under current climatic conditions, air currents from the Iranian region could enter Uzbekistan without significant barriers,” Abdulahatov added.
However, current satellite monitoring data shows no significant rise in atmospheric radiation levels over Iran’s nuclear sites, the scientist noted.
On June 16, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi confirmed that while the Israeli strike on the Natanz facility posed a risk of both radiological and chemical contamination, radiation levels near Natanz and Isfahan remained within safe limits.
Despite the reassurance, experts stress the importance of continued monitoring. Abdulahatov emphasized the need for preparedness and early warning systems in Central Asia, particularly during summer when atmospheric pathways from Iran are more active.
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