Cotton and grain crops in Uzbekistan's Namangan, Andijan, and Fergana regions are experiencing significant challenges due to climate change.
This includes factors such as rising temperatures, low rainfall, and drought, which are affecting the agricultural landscape. Consequently, there is a pressing need to develop a scientifically grounded agrobulletin to assess how climatic conditions influence crop development throughout the irrigation season. This will allow for the proactive management of cotton and grain crops based on future climate risk forecasts.
In July 2023, these regions faced the hottest month in a century, with the average monthly temperature in Namangan reaching 31°C. The extreme heat resulted in heightened drought conditions for the entire month. The severity of air dryness is evaluated based on the daily air humidity deficit. The air dryness levels observed in these regions and their associated impacts are as follows:
- Weak air dryness: Occurred in extensive flat areas, requiring frequent watering of plants.
- Average air dryness: Resulted in 5-10% wilting of plants, particularly in cotton fields.
- Strong air dryness: Caused damage of up to 15-20% to cotton crops in certain regions.
While "weak" air dryness was observed in extensive flat areas, "average" air dryness persisted for several days in cities such as Fergana and Namangan. The regions experiencing the strongest air dryness corresponded to these areas. In Namangan, "average" air dryness was observed for three days, while in Fergana, it was recorded for one day. The areas with the most pronounced air dryness observed in these regions corresponded to these locations.
In a more comprehensive assessment, "weak" air dryness was documented in a large part of the valley for 5-8 days during the month. Notably, around observation points such as Pop, Kokhan, Fergana, and Andijan, this phenomenon persisted for 9-12 days.
In Namangan, "weak" air dryness continued for more than 12 days. It was also observed for 4 days in areas such as Guva, Namangan, Kosonsoy, Chust, Pop, Yangikurgan, and Chortoq districts of Fergana. "Weak" air dryness was not observed in mountainous regions such as Pop, Yangikurgan, Fergana, and Sokh districts. Among these areas, the border regions of Kurgantepa district with the neighboring Osh region also remained unaffected.
The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is used to evaluate drought based on precipitation data. In the Fergana Valley, July was characterized by high air temperatures, significant dryness, and low rainfall. SPI data from July was close to normal dryness, although some mountainous areas around the Kuva observation point recorded slight wetness near the norm. In contrast, Andijan city and the Korgontepa district experienced "moderate" dryness.
Normalized Vegetation Index (NDVI) is a remote sensing technology used to assess drought by observing vegetation changes. On July 13-14, a period of intense heat and dry air, the NDVI map indicated reduced greenness, particularly around the Pop district. Greenness also declined in urban areas such as Andijan, Namangan, and Fergana due to increased construction activities.
Cotton development depends on effective temperatures, with specific temperature requirements during different growth stages. With this year's sowing period in these regions starting in early April, calculating the cumulative temperature sum for cotton development from April 1 to August 1 is essential. In most of the Fergana Valley regions, this sum ranged from 1600-1800°C, while in areas around the Pop district and the Kuva observation point, it exceeded 1800°C.
The impact of climate change on cotton and grain crops in Uzbekistan's Fergana Valley is evident. While the increased temperatures have been favorable for crop development, moderate air dryness and extreme temperatures have also posed challenges. Efficient management is vital to ensure crop yields and bolster agricultural resilience.
Written by Khadicha Abdurashidova
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