On 27 May 2023, there was an exchange of gunfire at the border of Afghanistan and Iran, it resulted in the deaths of two Iranian security personnel and one Taliban border guard. There are also reports of two Iranian civilians being injured in the process. Both sides accuse the other of shooting first and escalating the conflict. Taliban Ministry of Defense spokesman, Enayatullah Khowarazmi, placed the blame on Iran stating, “Unfortunately, today once again in the border areas of Kong district of Nimroz province, there was a shooting by Iranian soldiers, [and] a conflict … broke out.” While Iran’s national news agency, IRNA quoted Qasem Rezaei, Iran’s Deputy Police Chief placing blame on Afghan forces stating that “Without observing international laws and good neighbourliness, Taliban forces started shooting at the Sasoli checkpoint … drawing a decisive response.”
This month, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi issued a warning to the Taliban not to break a 1973 pact by limiting the flow of water from the Helmand River to Iran's eastern areas. Officials from the Taliban reportedly asserted that nothing would reach Iran even if they opened the dam due to low water levels. But according to a 1973 water rights contract, Amir-Abdollahian claimed that this could only be decided by a combined technical team. According to the minister, Iran has suggested that a team examine the Kajaki Dam to evaluate its condition.
The 1973 deal states that Afghanistan must annually deliver 850 million cubic meters of water from the Helmand River to Iran. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, drought has been a problem in Iran for roughly 30 years, but it has gotten worse over the past ten years. According to the Iran Meteorological Organization, approximately 97% of the country is currently experiencing some form of drought. Afghanistan itself has also been facing some level of drought over recent years in its western region and asserts that while it aims to meet its obligations to the 1973 bilateral agreement, its own water needs should not be ignored.
Following the events, Khowarazmi stated that the preferred method of resolution of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan to be “dialogue and negotiation”, further stating that “Making excuses for war and negative actions is not in the interest of any of the parties.”
However, further adding fuel to the fire, former governor of Paktia province, Abdul Hamid Khurasani issued a warning to Iron via video. In the video he delivers his message calming, sitting cross-legged on the floor with a Colt 933 Carbine neatly placed behind him, a subtle yet clear image.
"We have something to say to the Iranians, don't test the patience of the Afghan people, we are not like mercenaries of colonialism, let us forgive you and bow down to you, be sure that we fought with passion against America. And we will fight against you too. If Iran interferes with the rights of the Afghan people, we will take our rights from your fathers and grandfathers. You can't play with us the same games you played with the West," he said.
Water Crisis in Central Asia
One of the biggest contributors to instability in Central Asia is the availability of water. It is increasingly becoming one of the biggest challenges for the five Stans and it is being worsened by climate change. The most apparent causes of conflict are how climate change has impacted the availability of water with an imbalance in demand and supply of this precious resource. It has previously led to violence in the region on multiple occasions and the risk of future conflict is real.
A famous example of how climate change has impacted the availability of water in the region is the Aral Sea. It used to be the fourth-largest lake in the world and is now almost completely turned into a desert. This is a result of short-sited Soviet industry policies, diverting the river routes to supply the agriculture sector, predominantly cotton. Considering that water in Central Asia is not a scarce resource, the main issue in the region is access and not the amount available. The mountains of the region act as water towers, hosting reservoirs that are the major suppliers to the region. Access to water is granted through the Amu and Syr Darya rivers, they flow from their sources in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to the Aral Sea, going through Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan.
The area most at risk of conflict is the Ferghana Valley, this fertile region is dependent on the Amu Darya and Syr Darya to supply water to its agricultural industry. While it is predominantly in Uzbekistan it also spreads into Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, as a result, this area is predisposed to disputes over water rights. Over the last 30 years, since the establishment of these sovereign states, hundreds of people have died following violent clashes in the valley over water accessibility. Other factors increasing the risk of conflict in this region are the fact that this is one of the most densely populated areas of the region and is facing rapid population growth. Not the mention the ethnic fragmentation and border disputes throughout the valley
It is projected that these disputes will only worsen given the rate of climate change and how increasing temperature will negatively affect water supply and eventually lead to real water scarcity. Therefore, it is imperative that decision-makers in the region focus on sustainable policies related to agriculture and work to educate their population on water preservation and conservation. In turn, this will alleviate the risks of conflict erupting and hopefully, allow for regional growth and prosperity.
Author:
Tawney Kruger
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