According to research by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), Central Asian economies have shown durability in the face of international events related to Russia's war against Ukraine.
The EBRD expects Uzbekistan's GDP to rise 6.5% between 2023 and 2024. Foreign investments, firms, and persons entering the nation, an effective privatization procedure, and business climate improvements are linked to the predicted increase. Nevertheless, the research identifies possible economic concerns for Uzbekistan, such as the current war involving Russia and Ukraine and a drop in remittances.
The EBRD also forecasts a 5.2% rise for Central Asian nations like Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan in 2023. The migration of enterprises and people from Russia, enhanced leadership techniques, increasing sales of commodities, and closer links with China are driving this expansion.
Central Asian economies were able to fill the hole created by foreign corporations' exit from the Russian market, selling their goods and establishing commercial ties with Russia. Financial transfers to Central Asia have expanded dramatically, resulting in greater bank deposits and earnings. The inflow of Russian businesses and people has increased interest in the retail, housing, and hotel industries.
Money transfers from migrant workers have gone up as well as a result of Russia's high labor demand and the ruble's appreciation. The area saw continuing development throughout 1Q23, while rates of inflation stayed above most nations' central banks' goal limits.
While the region's economies are likely to sustain their healthy growth rates, worldwide patterns in interest rates, inflation, and commodity costs remain unpredictable.
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