In the first quarter of 2025, Central Asian economies posted strong GDP growth across the board, with Kyrgyzstan emerging as the regional frontrunner.

Uzbekistan

According to preliminary figures from Uzbekistan’s National Statistics Committee, GDP increased by 6.8% in 1Q25. The growth was supported by rising industrial output (up 6.5%), a 10.8% surge in construction, and strong gains in retail (9.5%) and market services (12.6%). 

Agriculture, forestry, and fishing grew by 3.8%. The services sector recorded a 7.0% growth rate, with a substantial 3.8 percentage point contribution to GDP. Within services, trade (including accommodation and food services) grew by 8.8%, transportation and storage, information and communication surged by 14.3%, and other service sectors expanded by 4.5%.

The volume of net taxes on products rose by 7.2%, with a 0.2 percentage point contribution to GDP growth.

Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan recorded 5.8% GDP growth in 1Q25, up from 5.4% in the first two months of the year. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev highlighted the roles of transport, construction, industry, and trade in driving expansion. Tokayev also reassured citizens that Kazakhstan’s economic stability is backed by ample reserves in the National Fund and foreign currency holdings. 

Kazakhstan recorded 5.8% GDP growth in 1Q25, up from 5.4% in the first two months of the year. Preliminary data from the Bureau of National Statistics under the Agency for Strategic Planning and Reforms shows notable growth across key sectors: transport (21%), construction (16.9%), industry (6.6%), and trade (6.3%).

The country’s manufacturing industry showed continued momentum, led by mechanical engineering (up 17.7%), food production (up 13.2%), and finished metal products excluding machinery and equipment (up 28.7%). The mining industry also expanded by 6.1%. Construction growth, driven by the development of schools, highways, railways, and infrastructure projects, reached 16.9%.

President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev noted the country's preparedness to respond to global economic turbulence, citing the National Fund and strong gold and foreign currency reserves as buffers.

Kyrgyzstan

Kyrgyzstan posted the highest GDP growth rate in Central Asia at 13.1% for the first quarter of 2025. The National Statistical Committee attributed this performance to significant gains in commodity-producing sectors (up 22.2%) and service sectors (up 8.7%). 

The service sector accounted for 51% of GDP, while goods-producing industries comprised 31.5%. Notably, construction and industrial activities gained momentum, although agriculture’s share declined slightly.

Turkmenistan

Turkmenistan’s GDP grew by 6.3% during the same period. Key contributors included a 9.6% increase in manufactured goods, 9.9% growth in trade, 8.8% in services, and 4% in agriculture. 

Construction and industry rose by 3.8% and 0.3%, respectively. Retail turnover surpassed last year’s figures by 12.3%, and foreign trade increased by 2.9%. Wages in large and medium-sized enterprises rose by 11.2%, and capital investment jumped 17%, reflecting robust government spending and infrastructure development.

Tajikistan

While official 1Q25 data for Tajikistan is unavailable, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) projects 7% GDP growth for 2025, supported by continued infrastructure investments, including the Rogun dam project.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) estimates the economy will grow by 7.4% this year, following 8.4% growth in 2024. Key drivers include public and private investment in industry, services, and agriculture.

Forecasts  

Earlier forecasts by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) predict Uzbekistan’s economy will grow by 6.6% in 2025, with even stronger growth expected in 2026. Inflation is projected to slow to 8.0% in 2025 and 7.0% in 2026, despite anticipated hikes in energy prices.

As for neighboring countries, Kazakhstan’s GDP is projected to grow by 4.9% in 2025 and 4.1% in 2026, with inflation expected to be 8.2% in 2025 and 6.5% in 2026. In Kyrgyzstan, GDP growth is forecasted at 8.5% in 2025 and 8.6% in 2026, with inflation reaching 6.0% in 2025 and 7.8% in 2026.

Turkmenistan’s GDP is expected to grow by 6.5% in 2025 and 6.0% in 2026, with inflation at 6.0% for both years. Tajikistan’s economy is also forecasted to expand, with GDP growth projected at 7.4% in 2025 and 6.8% in 2026, and inflation expected to be 5.0% in 2025 and 5.8% in 2026.

Follow Daryo's official Instagram and Twitter pages to keep current on world news.