While overall inflation expectations have eased slightly in Uzbekistan, the population remains concerned about rising utility bills, fuel, and energy prices, according to the Central Bank's latest survey on inflation perceptions and forecasts.
Public concerns and expectations
The survey, conducted in June, revealed that expectations among the general population for price increases over the next 12 months fell slightly from 13.7% in May to 13.2%. However, concerns about specific cost categories remain strong.
Fifty percent of respondents said they expect utility bills to rise in the coming year, down from 57% in May. Concerns over fuel and energy prices also remain widespread, with 45% predicting an increase — a modest decrease from 49% the previous month.
There was a noticeable uptick in optimism around wages. In May, only 22% of respondents expected salaries and benefits to grow. That figure jumped to 35% in June.
The highest inflation expectations among population groups were recorded in the manufacturing sector (15.6%), followed by transportation services (15.1%), students (14%), and those working in science and education (13.5%). Residents of Tashkent had the highest regional expectations at 15.2%, while the lowest were seen in the Navoi region (12%).
Inflation continued to be felt most acutely by higher-income households. People earning over UZS 15mn ($1,179) per month reported the highest personal inflation rate at 16.5%.
Those in the UZS 10–15mn ($786-$1,179) and UZS 7–10mn ($553-$786) brackets reported 14.6% and 14.8% respectively. In contrast, individuals with monthly incomes below UZS 2mn ($157) experienced the lowest inflation rate at 11.8%.
Business sentiment
Entrepreneurs also showed a decline in inflation expectations, which dropped from 12.9% in May to 11.8% in June. Notably, fewer businesses now expect rising utility and fuel costs. Expectations for utility price increases fell from 54% to 47%, while forecasts for fuel and energy hikes dropped from 48% to 43%.
Among businesses, the science and education sector showed the highest inflation concerns at 13.4%. The healthcare sector had the lowest expectations, at 10.1%. Geographically, enterprises in Tashkent expressed the highest concerns (13.6%), while those in Karakalpakstan reported the lowest (10.4%).
Perceived price increases
Despite lower expectations overall, the public reported actual increases in the prices of basic goods and services. Meat and milk were again cited as the fastest rising in price, though the share of respondents flagging increases declined slightly from 55% in May to 53% in June.
Notably, more respondents reported rising prices for sugar and confectionery products — increasing from 14% in May to 21% in June. Reports of rent increases also ticked up from 12% to 13%.
Meanwhile, although many residents cited higher prices for electricity, natural gas, fuel, and medicines, the number of people who observed these increases dropped compared to the previous month.
Inflation
In the first half of 2025, Uzbekistan’s consumer price index (CPI) rose by 4.2%, compared to 5.2% during the same period in 2024. The annual inflation rate remained stable at 8.7% in June, unchanged from May, but down from 10.1% in April and significantly lower than the 10.6% recorded in June last year.
In December 2024, annual inflation stood at 9.8%. Although this was 1% higher than in 2023, it reflected a noticeable slowdown from 2022, when inflation reached 12.2%. The monthly consumer price index (CPI) rose by 1.0% in December, while the average monthly increase over the year was 0.8%.
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