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    Economics

    Inflation forecasts hit yearly low, Central Bank of Uzbekistan

    Inflation forecasts hit yearly low, Central Bank of Uzbekistan

    Inflation expectations among the population and businesses in Uzbekistan continue to decline, reaching the lowest levels in recent years, according to a survey conducted by the Central Bank.

    The survey revealed that in May, the average inflation forecast for the next 12 months stood at 13.7%, with a median forecast of 11%. These figures mark a significant decrease compared to earlier in the year.

    At the beginning of the year, average inflation expectations reached 18.9%, with a median level exceeding 15%. Back then, approximately two-thirds of respondents expected an acceleration in price growth. However, the recent survey indicates that only 40% of respondents anticipate such acceleration.

    The regions with the highest inflation forecasts were Tashkent (16.2%), Namangan (16%), and Khorezm (14.6%). On the other hand, residents of Karakalpakstan (11.3%) and the Navoi region (12%) had the lowest inflation expectations.

    Currency fluctuations were identified as the most commonly mentioned factor potentially influencing the forecast, cited by 47% of respondents. The increase in wages was mentioned by 36% of participants, while the possibility of speculative price hikes was also noted by the same percentage of respondents.

    Fuel prices continued to have a significant impact on inflation expectations, as mentioned by 32% of participants. However, only a quarter of respondents expected a possible increase in food prices.

    Entrepreneurs also revised their inflation forecasts downward. In May, businesses anticipated an average annual price growth rate of 13.5%, with a median forecast just above 11%. Approximately 43% of surveyed entrepreneurs expected inflation to rise.

    Similar to the general population, business representatives predominantly based their inflation forecasts on exchange rate dynamics (44%). Other important factors mentioned included wage and benefit growth (36%) and the rise in fuel and transportation costs (30%).

    Less frequently mentioned factors were a deteriorating competitive environment (18%), issues with the supply of imported raw materials (17%), and price increases of imported raw materials (16%).

    14.06.2023, 15:21   Comments (0)   1204
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