In recent data released by the Central Bank of Uzbekistan (CBU), the country's inflation forecasts have exhibited a downward trend following a minor uptick the previous month.
The November survey indicates a decrease in the average expected inflation rate for the upcoming year, now standing at 13.6%, down by 0.1% compared to October. The median has also seen a reduction of 0.2%, settling at 10.9%.
Uzbekistan's inflation by Daryo
Regional Disparities in Inflation Expectations
Geographical disparities in inflation expectations are notable, with the highest forecasts reported in Tashkent (15.7%), Samarkand (14.9%), and Andijan (14.6%). Conversely, regions such as Karakalpakstan, Namangan, and Navoi have presented the lowest estimates for future inflation.
Occupational Perspectives on Inflation
Breaking down the data by occupation reveals interesting insights. Optimism regarding inflation is most evident among representatives of the tourism industry (10.9%), the transport sector (11.1%), and agriculture, along with personal services (11.6%). On the other hand, retirees (15.9%) and those in the education sector (14.3%) have provided higher inflation forecasts.
Key Factors Influencing Inflation Expectations
The primary factor shaping inflation expectations remains the fluctuation of currency exchange rates, cited by 58% of survey participants. Additionally, concerns about rising fuel and energy prices (43%), increasing wages (38%), and elevated costs for housing and communal services (38%) are frequently mentioned as influential factors.
Entrepreneurial Outlook
Entrepreneurs, while exhibiting a more noticeable decline in inflation expectations, continue to present diverse perspectives. The average inflation level among business owners stands at 13.1%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points. The median has also decreased to 10.9%, down by 0.8 percentage points.
Regional Variances in Entrepreneurial Expectations
Entrepreneurs in Samarkand (15.6%), Kashkadarya, and Syrdarya (14.6%) reported the highest inflation expectations. Conversely, merchants in Navoi (10%) and Khorezm (11.1%) anticipate lower rates of price growth.
Industry-Specific Inflation Expectations
Breaking down inflation expectations by industry highlights variations. The highest inflation expectations are noted in the industry (13.9%), marketing (13.5%), and IT (13.4%). In contrast, artisans and transporters present more optimistic forecasts, with inflation expectations of 11.8% and 11.9%, respectively.
Influential Factors in Entrepreneurial Inflation Expectations
Similar to the general population, entrepreneurs' expectations are primarily influenced by exchange rate dynamics (61%). This is followed by concerns about rising fuel prices (40%), increasing utility costs (38%), higher wages (37%), and transportation expenses (29%).
Earlier Daryo reported that the CBU regards a boost in foreign direct investments and the internal production capacity of private sectors as pivotal factors to achieve the projected real GDP growth of 5-5.7% in 2024, 5-6% in 2025, and 5.5-6.5% in 2026.
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