Afghanistan finds itself at a critical juncture, facing the complex challenge of managing an external debt totaling approximately $3.4 bn. The World Bank's International Debt Report 2023 shows delves into the nuances of Afghanistan's economic predicament, leveraging crucial insights.
Total External Debt Stocks and Economic Impact
Afghanistan's external debt looms large at $3.4 bn. Percentage of external debt stocks concerning exports and Gross National Income (GNI) remains undisclosed. Crucial debt service indicators, such as the percentage of debt service concerning exports and GNI, are notably absent from the report, leaving a gap in understanding the economic burden borne by the nation.
Net Financial Flows and Population Dynamics
The report discloses a concerning net financial outflow of -$91mn. As Afghanistan grapples with economic challenges, the impact on its population of 41 mn remains unexplored, raising questions about the social implications of the external debt on public services and welfare.
The significant decrease in inflows, marked by a decline of -91, can be attributed to the Taliban takeover in 2021. The political upheaval and security concerns resulting from the takeover led to a substantial reduction in international investments, foreign aid, and economic activities within the region.
Creditor Composition and Debt Terms
The creditor composition reveals a nuanced landscape, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) constituting 21%, bilateral creditors at 58%, and multilateral creditors, including the Asian Development Bank, making up 22%. The Russian Federation holds a significant share at 36%, with other contributors like Saudi Arabia and Italy making up the rest. Unfortunately, terms on new debt commitments are not provided.
Summary External Debt Data (2010-2022)
An overview shows that Afghanistan's total external debt stocks were $2.44 bn in 2010, with long-term external debt stocks at around $2bn. Short-term external debt stocks amounted to $105mn in 2010 and rised to $394mn in 2022. Disbursements in the long term were $76mn, with principal repayments at $1mn and interest payments at $8mn in 2010.
Long-term external debt stocks demonstrated a consistent downward trend, dropping from around $2 bn in 2010 to $1.9 bn in 2022. The percentage change reveals a decrease of 5.02% from 2010 to 2022 and an additional 4.73% decrease from 2018 to 2022.
The role of private creditors remained stable, with no significant changes observed over the years. However, the use of IMF credit and SDR allocations saw a notable rise, increasing from $355mn in 2010 to $1.1bn 2022, marking a substantial 216.34% increase.
Short-term external debt stocks experienced a surge from $105mn in 2010 to $394mn in 2022, indicating a remarkable 275.24% increase. The increase was not particularly steep from 2020 to 2021, with a percentage change of particularly steep from 2020 to 2021, with a percentage change of 2.30%.
Earlier Daryo reported that the International Debt Report 2023 by the World Bank indicates that Uzbekistan is contending with an external debt of $49.1 bn in 2022, marking a substantial increase from the $7.98 bn recorded in 2010.
Analysis based on the World Bank International Debt Report 2023 and additional financial data
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