American Afghanistan experts Graham Smith and David Mansfield recently published a study on the country's shadow economy, suggesting that this sector could enrich the new Afghan government.
The researchers believe that under the Taliban's rule, illicit trade will become the primary source of state revenue. Smith and Mansfield's research in the Nimruz province, bordering Iran and Pakistan, revealed that the Taliban earns approximately $235 mn annually from tolls collected for safe movement of goods, while foreign contributions to the province's economy previously averaged less than $20 million per year under the previous government.
The political achievements of the Taliban pose a challenging dilemma for neighboring countries: whether to continue trading with Afghanistan, thereby granting the new aggressive government more power and legitimacy, or forfeit extremely lucrative business.
While some neighboring nations are currently opting for the latter, it remains uncertain how long these decisions will hold. For example, Iran, unwilling to recognize the Taliban's authority, ceased all trade with Afghanistan in early August. Nevertheless, the economic incentive driving Tehran to resume commercial ties with Afghanistan is significant, as official data shows that Iran's bilateral trade turnover with Afghanistan exceeded $2 bn last year. However, Smith and Mansfield's investigation indicates that actual figures, accounting for the shadow economic sector, might be twice as high
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