In a 12-month forecast published by ISciences, persistent and extreme water deficits are predicted for the region. ISciences' published a forecast on August 2 focusing on the water deficits seen in Central Asia and Western Russia from April 2023- Marc 2024. Governments are taking measures to reduce the impact of the water deficit on agriculture, the environment, and society.
Through March 2024, Western Russia and Central Asia anticipate persistent deficits. Northwestern Russia, Southern Russia, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan forecast exceptional deficits, while northern and central Russia might witness pockets of surplus. The easternmost regions of Central Asia are expected to face the brunt of the deficit.
Forecast Breakdown: From Bad to Worse
The deficit forecast through September 2023 indicates persisting deficits in western Russia, primarily near Nenets Autonomous Okrug and Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug. While the anomalies in these regions are expected to persist,
their magnitude will decrease slightly. Surpluses are expected to remain in Central Russia, but exceptional deficits are forecasted for Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.
October through December 2023 will see a reduction in the severity of the deficits across Russia, with the majority of the anomalies easing. However, intense deficits will continue in central areas of Tyumen Oblast, along with intense surplus in Central Russia, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.
The final months, January through March 2024, indicate continued anomalies across Russia and Central Asia, with isolated deficits in western Russia near the Tyumen Oblast, and intense surplus occurring across Central Russia, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.
Impacts: A Costly Consequence
Droughts and heat waves in the Russian region of Sverdlovsk are causing severe damage to the growth of crops. The conditions are leading to a reduction of 0.8% in local yields this year. According to Sergey Sharapov, the First Deputy Minister of the Agro-industrial Complex and Consumer Market, the lack of precipitation and dry, hot winds have deteriorated the farming conditions significantly. This has resulted in a considerable decrease in crop yields, mainly grains. Forest ecosystems are also facing high risks due to extreme dry conditions.
Governmental Response: Steps Towards Mitigation
The drought is also affecting Kazakhstan. In light of the drought's severity, Kazakhstan's government is considering steps to provide state-assisted support to the affected farmers. The proposed measures include a moratorium on loans for these farmers.
According to Yerbol Taszhurekov, Deputy Head of the Ministry, "The regions will be allocated KZT 11.7 bn ($26,219,395.80) to subsidize the cost of feed in 2023."
He also indicated the provision of diesel fuel at a reduced price for fodder harvesting.
Uzbekistan has doubled tariffs on water consumption to slow down consumption and aid in water conservation. Senate chairperson, Tanzila Norboyeva commented:
"We do not see comprehensive measures aimed at rational use of water," prior to the tariff increase approval. Considering Uzbekistan's rapidly growing population, the government is taking steps to mitigate the water crisis.
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