In 2023, the planet faces a dual challenge of global heating and an emerging El Niño event, The Guardian reports.
El Niño, a significant natural influence on weather, adds additional warmth to an already warming world, resulting in intensified extreme weather. The previous major El Niño from 2014 to 2016 broke global temperature records, with 2016 remaining the hottest year ever recorded. The current El Niño may already be driving new temperature records, leading to record heatwaves on land and in the seas.
El Niño-La Niña Cycle
The El Niño-La Niña cycle, driven by variations in wind strength and ocean temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, brings two distinct climate patterns. Switching irregularly every three to seven years, El Niños tend to last about a year, while La Niña phases can be longer. 2023 marks the end of an unusual run of three successive La Niña years.
During El Niño, weakened easterly winds allow warm water to spread across the Pacific, releasing heat into the atmosphere. In contrast, during La Niña, stronger easterly winds lead to further cooling of the east Pacific waters. The timing of the cycle's switches between neutral, El Niño, and La Niña conditions is complex, resulting from interactions among various climate system phenomena.
El Niño releases heat from the ocean to the atmosphere, contributing to an increase in global surface temperatures. It can add up to 0.2°C annually.
The El Niño-La Niña cycle causes shifts in warm ocean waters and moisture-laden air, resulting in increased heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, and floods in different regions. Peru, Ecuador, and the Amazon experience heavy rains and flooding during El Niño. Australia faces higher temperatures, raising the risk of heatwaves, droughts, and bushfires. El Niño also affects drought risk in Indonesia and fuelled significant forest fires in the past.
Global Impact
El Niño's effects extend beyond the Pacific, altering the position of the high-altitude jet stream wind, leading to wetter weather and increased flood risks in the southern US, while the northern US, Canada, and China experience warmer and drier conditions. Farther from the Pacific, reduced rainfall in the Indian monsoon poses a significant impact, while El Niño could bring increased rain to the drought-stricken Horn of Africa.
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