If Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan loses power in the current election, the European Union (EU) would welcome a "more moderate Turkey," while Russia could lose economic and diplomatic cooperation, New York Times forecasts.
The election is being closely watched by the West, NATO headquarters, and the Kremlin, as Ankara's mediating role between the two sides depends on the election outcome. Erdogan is currently slightly behind his opponent, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, causing increased attention on the election.
Erdogan's foreign policy during his 20 years in power has often upset his allies in the West and created favorable diplomatic opportunities for Russia. Erdogan refused to support Western sanctions against Russia and blocked Sweden's entry into NATO, which disappointed his allies. The EU and the US consensus is that Turkey, under Erdogan, has moved further away from European values and norms.
The USA, EU, and NATO would benefit from the victory of the opposition if Erdogan is overthrown, while Russian President Vladimir Putin would be considered a loser. The opposition candidate, Kilicdaroglu, has pledged to maintain economic ties with Russia if he wins the presidential election, but it is unclear whether Erdogan will maintain the delicate balancing act on Ukraine.
The Turkish presidential election began on May 14, with three candidates competing for the presidency: Erdogan, Kilicdaroglu, and Sinan Ogan. Erdogan's defeat would be welcomed by the EU, while Russia's economic and diplomatic ties with Turkey could be affected. The West and NATO would benefit from the opposition's victory, while Putin would lose out. The outcome of the election remains to be seen.
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