Agency Fitch Ratings (headquartered in New York) has affirmed Turkmenistan's Long-term foreign currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'B+.'
At the same time, the outlook has been revised from Stable to Positive, as the external and sovereign balance sheets benefit from higher energy prices.
Turkmenistan's rating is underpinned by its possession of the world's fourth-largest gas reserves, but Fitch does not anticipate a significant increase in gas production over its forecast period.
"Turkmen gas is sold at the border, and major new supply would require new infrastructure, which the buyer would finance, and long-term contracts, in addition to investment to expand production."
Gas production declined by 1.8% in 2022 to 82.3bcm, reflecting a near halving of exports to Russia after a one-off special request for exports above the contracted level in 2021. Around 70% of gas exports are to China, where exports rose by 3.5% in 2022.
External debt fell to 6.1% of GDP at the end-2022 and is forecast to remain stable to end-2024 due to the absence of significant new foreign-financed projects.
Credits: Eziz Boyarov, Ashgabat
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