The latest International Monetary Fund's (IMF) World Economic Outlook states that growth in emerging market and developing economies is anticipated to remain consistent at 4.2% in 2024 and 2025. This stability is attributed to a decline in growth in emerging and developing Asia, counterbalanced by increased growth in economies across the Middle East and Central Asia.
Kazakhstan's economic indicators have shown mixed trends across GDP growth, consumer price inflation (CPI), and unemployment, IMF stated in the reported.
GDP Growth
From 2016 to 2019, Kazakhstan witnessed steady GDP growth, ranging from 0.9% to 4.5%. However, the year 2020 brought a notable setback with a GDP contraction of -2.6%, likely due to the global economic downturn triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite this setback, Kazakhstan rebounded swiftly in 2021, recording a robust GDP growth rate of 4.1%. The trend continued with growth rates of 3.3% in 2022 and 5.1% in 2023. However, the IMF forecasts a slight moderation in growth to 3.1% in 2024 and gradual increase to 5.6% in 2025.
Consumer Price Inflation (CPI)
Inflationary pressures have been a concern for Kazakhstan, with CPI fluctuating over the years. From 2016 to 2019, Kazakhstan experienced moderate inflation rates, ranging from 5.2% to 14.6%. However, inflation spiked to 15% in 2022, reflecting the impact of global economic uncertainties and domestic factors. In 2023, inflation remained high at 14.6%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures. The IMF projects a gradual decline in inflation to 8.7% in 2024 and to 7% in 2025, signaling efforts to stabilize prices.
Unemployment
Kazakhstan has maintained relatively low unemployment rates compared to regional counterparts. In 2023 and 2024, the unemployment rate stood at 4.8%, and is expected to stay at 4.8% in 2025, reflecting a stable labor market. This indicates resilience in job creation despite economic fluctuations and underscores Kazakhstan's efforts to promote employment and economic stability.
IMF projection 2023
Kazakhstan faced economic challenges initially, with growth dropping from 6.3% in 2015 to 1%. The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic further exacerbated the situation, leading to a negative Real GDP of -2.6%. While there was recovery by 2022, projections indicate a significant decline in GDP to 3% by 2028 from 4.6% in 2023. The country experienced fluctuating CPI levels, with a peak of 14.6% in 2017. Projections suggest even higher CPI rates for 2023 and 2024 at 15%, with expectations of a decrease to 9% by 2028.
ADB and World Bank reports
The Asian Development Bank forecasts that Kazakhstan will see its GDP grow by 3.8% in 2024, followed by a rebound to 5.3% in 2025, driven by developments in the Tengiz oil field. Inflation is predicted to decline gradually to 8.7% in 2024 and 6.3% in 2025, contingent upon the enforcement of stringent monetary policies and stable exchange rates.
World Bank forecasts that Kazakhstan's economic expansion is expected to slow down to 3.4% in 2024 before picking up pace in 2025 at 4.7%, mainly propelled by the introduction of new oil production initiatives.
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