Kazakhstan is navigating financial terrain, with the World Bank's International Debt Report 2023 revealing intricate details about the nation's external debt situation.
Total External Debt and Economic Impact
As of 2022, Kazakhstan shows substantial external debt of $161.7 bn. The report does not provide the percentage of external debt concerning exports and Gross National Income (GNI), leaving key economic indicators undisclosed. The debt service, representing the percentage of debt service relative to exports and GNI, is reported at 46% and 23%, respectively.
Net Financial Flows and Population Dynamics
The report discloses a concerning net financial outflow of -$7.8 bn. Unfortunately, the impact on Kazakhstan's population of 20 mn remains unexplored, raising questions about the social implications of external debt on public services and welfare.
Creditor Composition and Debt Terms
The creditor composition unveils a nuanced landscape, with bilateral creditors, including China and Japan, constituting 66%. Multilateral creditors, such as the Asian Development Bank and the World Bank, contribute 26%. Notably, the Russian Federation holds a significant share at 36%. The terms on new debt commitments from official and private creditors are not provided in the report.
Summary External Debt Data (2010-2022)
A historical overview reveals that Kazakhstan's total external debt stocks were $119.15 bn in 2010, witnessing fluctuations over the years. Long-term external debt stocks was $109.7 bn in 2010, reaching $143.1 bn, while short-term external debt stocks amounted to $16.6 bn in 2022 compared to $8.9 bn in 2010. Disbursements in the long term were $45.05 bn, with principal repayments at $34.6 bn and interest payments at $4.5 bn.
Debt Breakdown - Public and Private Sectors
The public and publicly guaranteed debt from official creditors in 2022 stands at $8.7 bn. The multilateral contribution, including the World Bank, was $3.6 bn, while bilateral contributions totaled around $2 bn in 2022. Private creditors, including bondholders and commercial banks, contributed $16.8 bn in 2022. The use of IMF credit and SDR allocations amounted to $1.9 bn in 2022
Short-term Debt and Financial Flows
Short-term external debt stocks in 2022 reached $12.6 bn. Disbursements in the long term amounted to $22.8 bn, with the public and publicly guaranteed sector receiving $2.4 bn and the private sector receiving $35.2 bn in 2022. Principal repayments in the long term stood at $34.6 bn in 2010 and decresing to $27.3 bn in 2022. Interest payments in the long term amounted to $4.56 bn in 2010 and went down to $3.6 bn in 2022.
Long-term external debt stocks increased from $109.7 bn in 2010 to $143.1 bn in 2022, constituting a 30% rise. Short-term external debt stocks amounted to $16.6 bn in 2022, compared to $8.9 bn in 2010, reflecting an 86% increase.
The multilateral contribution, including the World Bank, was $3.6 bn, making up 2% of the total external debt, while bilateral contributions totaled around $2 bn in 2022, contributing 1.2% to the total external debt. Private creditors, including bondholders and commercial banks, contributed $16.8 bn in 2022, comprising 10.4% of the total external debt. The use of IMF credit and SDR allocations amounted to $1.9 bn in 2022, representing 1.2% of the total external debt.
In 2021, short-term external debt stocks reached $12.6 bn, constituting 7.8% of the total external debt. Disbursements in the long term amounted to $22.8 bn in 2021, with the public and publicly guaranteed sector receiving $2.4 bn in 2021 (1.5% of the total external debt). Principal repayments in the long term stood at $34.6 bn in 2010, decreasing to $27.3 bn in 2021, marking a 21% reduction.
Earlier Daryo reported that the 2023 International Debt Report by the World Bank reveals that Uzbekistan is contending with an external debt of $49.1 bn in 2022, marking a substantial increase from the $7.98 bn recorded in 2010.
Analysis based on the World Bank International Debt Report 2023 and additional financial data
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