International agency Fitch Ratings has affirmed Turkmenistan's Long-Term Foreign-Currency (LTFC) Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'B+' with a Positive Outlook.
The information said that the rating is supported by Turkmenistan's extremely strong sovereign balance sheet, with the highest sovereign net foreign assets (SNFA)/gross domestic product (GDP) and lowest public debt in the 'B' peer group, underpinned by the world's fourth-largest gas reserves.
The Positive Outlook reflects expectation of further balance-sheet strengthening on high energy prices and contained expenditure.
Turkmenistan is a key player in the regional energy market. The volume of gas exports (which account for two-thirds of total exports) fell 2.3% in 2023, and Fitch projects gas production will be broadly flat in 2024-2025 due to constrained pipeline infrastructure capacity.
China accounted for almost 80% of gas exports in 2023 and plans for a fourth pipeline are underway.
Fitch forecasts GDP growth to edge down to 2.3% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025, which balances a further rise in public investment partly due to the second phase of Arkadag "smart" city, and development of downstream energy products and the transportation corridor.
The report said public debt fell to 4.3% of GDP at end-2023 from 10% at end-2021, and Fitch projects a further reduction to 3.5% at end-2025.
Turkmenistan exports gas mainly to China, but also to Russia and Uzbekistan. Electricity is imported by Afghanistan, Iran, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. The country is also an exporter of oil products, polymers, synthetic petrol and textiles.
Eziz Boyarov
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