On January 17, Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of Russia's Security Council, made a controversial statement regarding Ukraine's status, sparking intense discussions about regional stability and the validity of historical territorial claims.
Medvedev's statement, posted to his telegram channel reads as follows:
"The presence of an independent state on historical Russian territories will now be a constant reason for the resumption of hostilities."
During a discussion hosted by Daryo, Dr. Farkhad Tolipov, a noted expert in geopolitics and regional security from Uzbekistan, and Eldaniz Gusseinov, an international studies expert from Kazakhstan, delved into the complexities and implications of Medvedev's statement.
Dr. Tolipov criticized Medvedev's statement as "very cynical and hypocritical," highlighting the risks of relying on a primordialist approach to justify actions in international relations, particularly in the sensitive context of Central Asia. “Medvedev's statement is one of the manifestations of the overall war rhetoric peculiar to the Russian political establishment," Tolipov asserted. He further criticized the Russian political language's controversial and fake-filled rhetoric during the war in Ukraine, labeling it as full of Nazism, fascism, and even Satanism.
"In my opinion, the statements made by Medvedev and others in Russian political circles, including those disseminated through media and propaganda channels, are merely rhetoric," Dr. Tolipov stated.
"Considering Russia's current difficulties in Ukraine, I doubt Russia would embark on similar ventures in other parts of the former Soviet territory. This verbal aggressiveness may be compensating for their military shortcomings in Ukraine."
Eldaniz Gusseinov provided further insight into the reasons behind the Russian political elite's choice of rhetoric. "There are three main reasons for such rhetoric: fear mongering, distrust between politicians of former post-Soviet countries, and the hopelessness of Russian foreign policy in this area," Gusseinov explained. He elaborated on how Russian politicians might use fear mongering to rally public and political figures around controversial policies, especially in the context of the war in Ukraine.
Discussing the broader regional implications, Dr. Tolipov pointed out the recent military collaborations in Central Asia. "There was an announcement that four states of Central Asia, plus Azerbaijan, are planning to conduct military exercises in Kazakhstan this year," he noted, interpreting this as a response to the overall geopolitical turbulence in the region, particularly in light of the war in Ukraine.
Gusseinov also touched upon the military dynamics within the region, particularly focusing on Kazakhstan's efforts to diversify military partnerships. "Kazakhstan tries to diversify some partners in the military sphere... But we should not forget that CSTO will also conduct approximately 4 or 5 military drills in Central Asian countries this year," he said, highlighting the complex military interplay in the region.
Dr. Tolipov further mentioned an interesting development in regional geopolitics involving China. “In May 2023, in Xi’an, China proposed that the Central Asian states establish their own security organization," he explained. "The Xi'an Declaration included China's assistance to strengthen regional security in Central Asia. However, the involvement of China in Central Asia's security sphere is a sensitive and delicate issue. In my opinion, Central Asian countries should prioritize their own regional efforts and undertakings to strengthen regional security without the participation of major powers."
When questioned about the biggest threat to Central Asia's regional security, Dr. Tolipov stressed the need for a detailed analysis, acknowledging multiple sources of potential threats, including Russia and Afghanistan. "It's a more complicated issue to be analyzed," he concluded, underlining the multifaceted nature of regional security concerns.
This insightful discussion not only illuminated the nuances behind Medvedev's controversial statement but also opened up a broader dialogue on the implications of such rhetoric for Central Asia. It underscored the importance of regional cooperation, understanding of historical contexts, and the careful navigation of the geopolitical landscape in these tumultuous times.
Comments (0)