Standard & Poor's (S&P) has affirmed Uzbekistan's foreign currency long-term credit rating as 'BB-' with a stable outlook.
Amidst nine countries experiencing downgraded credit ratings or outlooks since early 2023, Uzbekistan has been able to maintain its position with the help of significant external reserves. This has provided the country's leadership with the ability to manage any negative shocks that may arise in the global economy over the next 12 months.
Uzbekistan's economy is being supported by its positive net investment position and the moderation of external debt. S&P predicts that the country's economy will grow by 5.4% annually between 2023 and 2026, with per capita GDP reaching $2,400 in 2023. The main drivers of this growth are foreign trade and consumer demand, as well as efforts to develop the private sector and improve the business environment.
In order to improve its credit rating, Uzbekistan needs to integrate into the world economy, continue with economic reforms, diversify export earnings, and increase budget revenues.
Reportedly, there are also negative factors that could affect the country's credit rating. These include a reduction in fiscal and external reserves, a sharp increase in public debt, and government repayment of debts owed by state enterprises.
Standard & Poor's revises its forecast for Uzbekistan twice a year, with the latest forecast in December 2022 predicting a growth rate of 5.7%, while maintaining the same credit rating.
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