On May 18-19, the historic China-Central Asia Summit in the city of Xi'an convened the leaders of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan to the first China-Central Asia meeting bringing together since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the five countries of the region in 1992.
The summit aimed to strengthen cooperation in trade, energy, digitalization and security. Daryo.uz has collected the opinions of experts on the high-profile meeting.
Kazakhstan
Alibaev Aidar (economist)
First, the meeting is a powerful political signal that Beijing sends to the whole world that it intends to fight and win countries over to its side in order to ensure its influence and dominance, at least economic. Considering that the Chinese always work and act, guided by categories not only for decades, but even for centuries, then this is the beginning of a long journey. The goal is to ensure China's influence in this region. Since all these countries depend on it, it becomes clear that China has great chances in this direction.
Second, I would call it a "rocking" from Moscow to Beijing and back. After the parade on May 9th, where the leaders of the Central Asian countries participated, now they are going to the city of Xi'an. As you know, China attaches great importance to symbols. And Xi'an is not accidental, because, firstly, the city, as you know, is the ancient capital of China. As far as I know, it is considered to be a kind of capital starting point of the Great Silk Road. From here begins the movement to the west through the countries of Central Asia. And these symbols are very important for China.
This meeting shows that China does not intend to weaken its influence, but only strengthen it over this region, and it will further expand, deepen and be guided by a long-term policy. Russia is now weakening in every sense: economic, political and military. Since this region has always been considered behind the scenes as a region of influence of Russia, and now, in conditions of war, the role of the Russian Federation is falling. In other words, China is on the offensive in all directions.
After meeting in Xi'an, these five will be in Moscow at the end of this month for the EAEU summit. It is important for Putin, who has now become a handshake all over the world, to show that he is not alone. How important these meetings are in terms of their content is not so significant. The most important thing is that they drive. Thus, he shows that he is not an outcast.
Since all the countries of Central Asia are dependent on Russia in one way or another, they go to meet Putin without a murmur. Even realizing what irritation and discontent this causes in their own countries and in the West. As a result, the picture is emerging that the leaders of the Central Asian countries are between two fires.
Kyrgyzstan
Denis Berdakov (political scientist, consultant on Central Asian integration)
For the presidents of Central Asia, the CA summit in Xian is an opportunity to build, together with Chinese companies, a fairly developed region, re-industrialize and solve the problem of electricity shortages by implementing alternative methods, such as solar energy.
At the global level, this will mean that China has once again demonstrated the ability to create a new bloc at its side and guarantee the political socio-economic security of the region. Xi needs Central Asia as a logistics chain for the supply of goods to the EAEU, the countries of the Middle East and Europe.
China is interested in Central Asia being united, sovereign, open and with clearly defined borders. It is important for China that there are no problems with energy and unemployment in this region.
In addition, China needs to develop trade, exchange technologies with all countries that are members of the SCO.
Nurlan Dosaliev (expert on regional security)
The Xi'an summit was intended to ensure that China draws the attention of the world.
The PRC is well aware of the need for the unity of the Central Asian countries and their unification under Russian auspices. This is where the security of Beijing itself lies.
China is aware of the high probability of a war over Taiwan and hostilities in the Central Asian region, in its territorial waters and along its borders. The Taiwan problem may unfold according to the same scenario that is currently taking place in Ukraine.
The world’s most populous states achievements in the development of its peaceful, military and dual-use technologies obviously haunts the West.
China clearly understands the West's strategy to encircle it and that the West will deploy its activities from the rear, that is, Central Asia. Therefore, China very clearly evaluates all voyages of senior officials of Western countries in Central Asia, on a par with Taiwan.
A very big problem for the West is the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. In the event of the outbreak of hostilities in this region, a front in Xinjiang will be opened in parallel. Therefore, China is vitally interested that the countries of Central Asia, especially Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, stand on allied positions to Beijing and in the sphere of influence of Russia, being allies of the Russian Federation.
The fact is that the PRC is clearly aware of the prospect of war and it no longer has time for the former Soviet republics to be in the field of influence PRC.
Turkmenistan
A regular flight from the Chinese metropolis of Xi'an to the capital of Turkmenistan, Ashgabat seems quite symbolic.
Unlike his four colleagues, Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedov arrived there in a working visit.
Turkmenistan is the main supplier of pipeline gas to China, providing 40% of its domestic market. This has led to the fact that the ties between the two countries, located at a distance of thousands of kilometers from each other, have long become strategic.
Analysts in Ashgabat told Daryo that the Chinese boom "didn't happen overnight." In Turkmenistan, it began in 2007 when CNPC signed a Production Sharing Agreement (PSA) for the Bagtyyarlyk area.
“By the way, this is so far the only contract that Turkmengas has signed with a foreign company at an onshore gas field. The rest of them are offshore,” a source in the oil and gas industry noted.
To argue that the Kremlin is losing its positions in Central Asia, because now it is distracted by a military conflict with Ukraine, is premature, according to the Turkmen capital.
“We should not forget that China and Russia are among the founders of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). This platform allows them to distribute their influence in the region in a multilateral way.”
Some believe that Turkmenistan can also join the SCO, as all neighbors in the region have already done.
“After all, this does not imply military cooperation and does not contradict the neutral status that the country has maintained since 1995.”
Berdimuhamedov at the last SCO summit
In Samarkand, Uzbekistan, in September - where he was invited as a guest of honor - he said that against the background of the current complex processes in the region, "confrontation and unhealthy rivalry" are unacceptable.
Outside observers are sounding the alarm that China is enforcing the investment leverage in the states of Central Asia which may be still an exaggeration.
Turkmenistan, for example, has been selling some of its gas to China since 2009 to repay an $8.1 bn China Development Bank loan that was fully repaid in June 2021.
“On the other hand, only Beijing has the financial base to promote major regional projects, including infrastructure, both energy and transport,” another Turkmen economist said to Daryo.
It is noteworthy that the Chinese leader at one of his meetings with Berdimuhamedov touched upon the "complementarity" of the two countries and proposed to strengthen the "connection between nations."
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