The recent assassination attempt in Uzbekistan has placed the nation’s hard-won freedoms at risk and exposed the deep political fault lines threatening its democratic reforms. On October 26, 2024, Komil Allamjonov, the country’s former presidential press secretary and a key architect of its reform agenda, narrowly escaped an attack when gunmen opened fire on his vehicle outside the capital, Tashkent. Duggan Flanakin, Senior Policy Analyst at the Committee For a Constructive Tomorrow, describes the event as a pivotal moment for the country, writing, “The attack launched a global dragnet…[and] may set back the former Soviet republic’s hard-won democratic reforms, threaten regional stability, and bring the matter to the attention of President-elect Donald Trump.”
The assassination attempt on Allamjonov highlights the precarious state of Uzbekistan’s democracy Flanakin writes. He notes that this young republic, which has undergone sweeping reforms under President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, faces staunch opposition from entrenched elites, or what he terms Uzbekistan’s “deep state.”
He warns, “The assassination attempt was meant to send a message from the deep state, backed by foreign agitators, warning against continued reforms, designed to have a chilling effect on the reform movement.”
Targeting a Key Reformer
Komil Allamjonov, 40, has been instrumental in advancing Mirziyoyev’s reformist agenda, which includes the unblocking of foreign news outlets, the release of political prisoners, and the eradication of systemic forced labor. Allamjonov has also addressed the nation’s low ranking on press freedom indices, posting on Facebook that “Uzbek journalists have begun covering such pressing topics as corruption and forced labor, but self-censorship is still seen in the media sphere.” These efforts have been critical to Uzbekistan’s transformation from a repressive post-Soviet regime into a more open and democratic society.
However, these reforms have provoked backlash from powerful factions resistant to change. Flanakin writes, “Observers believe the attack was reflective of the internal struggle between the reformers and the hardliners who still occupy positions of power under the bureaucracy that President Mirziyoyev has been working to replace.”
A Web of Intrigue
The investigation into the attack has uncovered links to domestic and international players. Documents obtained by The Diplomat suggest the attack was part of a broader effort by unscrupulous businessmen to tarnish Allamjonov’s reputation and potentially have him sanctioned by the United States.
Following the attack, nine people were arrested including two Russian nationals with ties to the Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov.
Who are the Suspects?
On November 25, the Prosecutor General’s Office of Uzbekistan announced the arrest and extradition of Djavlan Yunusov, a suspect in the attempted assassination of Allamjonov. Yunusov, who was wanted by Interpol, was detained in South Korea and extradited to Uzbekistan for legal proceedings.
Seven individuals have been implicated in the case; five suspects are in custody, while another, identified as K.S., was detained in Kazakhstan. Authorities continue their investigation under Article 25.97 of Uzbekistan’s Criminal Code, which pertains to attempted murder.
On December 27, the Prosecutor General’s Office revealed that two Russian citizens residing in Chechnya, Bislan Rasayev and Shamil Temirkhanov, were charged in absentia in connection with the assassination attempt. The charges include violations under the relevant articles of the Criminal Code.
The two suspects were accused of multiple crimes, including illegal entry and exit from Uzbekistan, failure to report a crime, and illegal possession of firearms. As part of the ongoing investigation, a search warrant was issued for both individuals, with a preventive detention order applied.
Flanakin highlights the significance of this development, noting, “This is where Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov — sanctioned by the U.S. for human rights violations — makes an unexpected entrance.”
Ramzan Kadyrov’s Threat and Backlash in Uzbekistan
Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov dismissed allegations linking him to the assassination attempt on former Uzbek official Komil Allamjonov, accusing Western media of fabricating the claims. Kadyrov denied involvement, stating, “If I were behind such an attempt, I would have finished the job that same day.” He warned that the controversy could escalate into a “color revolution” and issued threats to Allamjonov and Dmitriy Li (Director of the National Agency for Prospective Projects (NAPP)), urging them to “back off” or face consequences “according to our traditions.”
In response, Uzbek MP Odiljon Tojiyev demanded a public apology from Kadyrov, accusing him of interfering in Uzbekistan’s internal affairs. Tojiyev called on Russia’s Prosecutor General’s Office to investigate Kadyrov’s actions and assist in extraditing two Chechens wanted in the case. Another MP, Rasul Kusherbayev, proposed stricter entry checks on Chechen nationals to safeguard Uzbekistan’s security.
Repercussions and Global Implications
In response to the attack, President Mirziyoyev dismissed several high-ranking officials, including State Security Service chief Abdusalom Azizov, signaling his commitment to rooting out obstructionist forces within the government. However, Flanakin warns that this incident exposes the fragility of Uzbekistan’s reform movement, emphasizing that “without U.S. support, anti-reform elements in Uzbekistan could become emboldened, and the country could backslide and be pulled into Putin’s expansionist plans.”
Flanakin urges the United States to take immediate action, including offering investigative support, advocating for a transparent trial, and reaffirming its commitment to Uzbekistan’s reforms. He writes, “The U.S. should offer assistance to Uzbekistan’s investigation into the attack on Allamjonov and call on authorities to conduct a public trial…This will help ensure a thorough, legitimate, and transparent investigation.”
Flanakin emphasized that "This will let the anti-reform elements know the U.S. is watching closely." This would be an open and clear indication of the U.S. supporting President Mirziyoyev's government and his reforms both economic and political. U.S and Uzbekistan ties were strained for many years under Karimov's regime and were re-established a few short years ago.
A call for U.S. engagement
Flanakin writes that Uzbekistan’s path to democracy is at a critical juncture. He says, "...as a young democracy, this is a critical moment for Uzbekistan." Suggesting that President-elect Donald Trump consider an unprecedented visit to Uzbekistan as a show of solidarity. Such a gesture, he argues, would “help counter the increased influence that China, Russia, and Iran are actively seeking in Central Asia.”
Flanakin emphasized that "President-elect Trump must pay attention to Uzbekistan. Aside from being a strong partner to the U.S., cooperating to fight terrorism, narcotics and trafficking, Uzbekistan’s critical minerals are vital to America's national security." During his confirmation hearing before the United States Senate Committee on Foreign Relations on January 15, Senator Marco Rubio issued a strong warning about the growing reliance of the U.S. on China for critical minerals. Uzbekistan and the USA signed an MoU in 2024 relating to these critical minerals.
MoU with USA
On September 16, 2024, the United States and Uzbekistan signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to strengthen cooperation in the critical minerals sector and the clean energy transition. The MoU was signed by U.S. Ambassador Jonathan Henick and Uzbekistan’s First Deputy Minister of Geology Omonullo Nasritdinxodjaev in Tashkent. The agreement focuses on boosting investments in Uzbekistan’s rich reserves of critical minerals, such as gold, copper, tungsten, silver, uranium, lithium, and rare-earth metals like molybdenum and vanadium. It also aims to support the global green economy by enhancing supply chains for electric vehicles, solar, and wind energy.
As Flanakin poignantly concludes, “A democratic, stable, independent Uzbekistan is in America’s national interest.” The world’s response to this moment will not only determine the future of Uzbekistan’s reforms but also its role as a reliable partner on the global stage.
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