Afghanistan, once a country that knew both peace and security, faces a vastly different present reality. The country has experienced struggles from the era of the Mughal Empire in the sixteenth century to the rise of the Taliban today. It remains one of the most volatile and isolated regions in the world. For centuries, Afghanistan has been a strategic crossroads, being the playing ground of the Great Game. In the late 1970s, the Soviet Union invaded, sparking a decade of fierce resistance from the Afghan people. This resistance culminated in the Soviet withdrawal in the late 1980s, marking a historic shift. In 1992, Burhanuddin Rabbani, a Tajik leader, became the first non-Pashtun president in modern Afghanistan.
The withdrawal of the Soviets, however, did not create lasting peace. Afghanistan endured a brutal ten-year civil war that gave rise to the Taliban in the late 1990s. The internal power struggles and the increase of extremism in Afghanistan at the time did not catch the notice of many other nations. 9/11 changed that, suddenly this remote country was back on the world’s agenda. The 9/11 attacks triggered a US-led intervention in Afghanistan. Both the Bush and Obama administrations deployed troops, seeking to dismantle extremist groups and establish stability. While the intervention achieved some initial success, it ultimately proved unsustainable. The 2020 Doha Agreement aimed for a peaceful withdrawal of US forces, but it also created a power vacuum that the Taliban swiftly exploited. Their violent resurgence in 2021 plunged Afghanistan back into chaos, leaving the country facing significant unresolved issues.
Daryo’s Assel Nussupova had the opportunity to meet with Mohibullah Noori, a prominent Afghan regional integration activist and public speaker residing in the US. Noori holds a bachelor's degree in Law and Political Science from Kabul University, a Master’s degree in Political Science and Public Administration from Pune University, a diploma in International Relations and Human Rights from Pune College, and a Post-Graduate diploma in regional cooperation from the NATO Defense College in Rome. He served in key roles within the Afghan government from 2011 to 2021. After relocating to the US, Noori established the Fajristan Regional Integration Movement (FRIM), a U.S.-registered non-profit promoting regional collaboration. Mr. Noori offered valuable insights into the current situation in his homeland, a region of critical geopolitical importance.
Q: Afghanistan has a long and complex history with world powers, but recently there's been a decrease in international engagement. Despite this, why is Afghanistan still valuable in the international community?
A: You're absolutely right. Afghanistan's location at the crossroads of Central, South, and West Asia makes it strategically important for trade and connectivity. In previous centuries, Afghanistan's geopolitical significance stemmed from its proximity to both Russia and British India. In the 21st century, its strategic importance is underscored by its [being in the] neighborhood with China, the world's second-largest economy. This proximity has the potential to significantly impact regional dynamics in the future. Despite its challenges, Afghanistan's unique position and potential for regional connectivity ensure its continued relevance on the world stage. The Pamir Mountains serve as a vital link between Afghanistan and neighboring countries [in] Central Asia, China and Pakistan. Sharing the Amu River with Central Asian nations necessitates cooperation and facilitates regional connectivity. Furthermore, connecting with Afghanistan is vital for the overall progress of landlocked Central Asian countries. There's more to it. Afghanistan also holds vast reserves of minerals like copper, lithium, and rare earth elements, all crucial for modern technology. This potential for future economic contribution adds significantly to our international value.
Q: Why have foreign attempts over the years to change Afghanistan’s politics, social institutions and government policies and to achieve security proved ineffective so far? Why have decades of foreign intervention aimed at reforming Afghanistan's government, social structures, and security landscape ultimately failed to bring lasting stability?
A: There are several interconnected reasons why foreign attempts to change Afghanistan's political landscape, social institutions, and government policies have largely proven ineffective in achieving security and stability.
First, overlooking internal diversity: Afghanistan is a land of diverse ethnicities, religions, and cultures. Beyond the four major ethnicities of Pashtuns, Tajiks, Hazaras, and Uzbeks, Afghanistan boasts a rich tapestry of smaller groups, each with its own distinct language and cultural heritage. Foreign powers often underestimated these complexities by imposing centralized systems. The Taliban's three years of failed rule show that a centralized system that ignores this diversity is like forcing a square peg into a round hole. It simply won't work. A decentralized democracy, on the other hand, allows each thread, each ethnic group, to contribute its unique strength to the fabric of the nation. This fosters a sense of national ownership and strengthens Afghanistan as a whole. Modern history has shown that ethnic nationalism is a failed approach in Afghanistan. A successful government should be the organization of all citizens, not a single ethnic or religious group. It should serve the people of Afghanistan. This necessitates a decentralized democratic system that respects the needs of Afghanistan's diversities. When foreign powers impose a centralized and undemocratic system, they often favor the dominant ethnic or religious groups or a select few. This marginalizes other groups, creating resentment and instability. They feel excluded from the decision-making process and their needs are not addressed. A decentralized democratic system that distributes power more evenly across regions and ethnicities would be a better fit.This could involve a federal structure or parliamentary system where different regions have more autonomy, or granting greater authority to local governments. By respecting diversity, such a system can create a more inclusive and stable Afghanistan.
Second, ignoring regional dynamics: Afghanistan without a regional integration policy with neighboring countries can’t achieve security, stability and development or [in other words] security and development in Afghanistan are impossible without a regional integration policy with neighboring countries. Afghanistan is part of Central Asia. Afghanistan sooner or later must reintegrate into Central Asia. Afghanistan has strong ties with Central Asia and a wider region encompassing Iran, Pakistan, and Turkey. Foreign powers often fail to consider these regional connections. Historically, Afghanistan even played a role in regional governance, participating in empires that spanned Central Asia, Pakistan, India, and Iran. This shared heritage continues to resonate today. Afghanistan historically, geographically, culture, ethnicity, and religiosity is part of a wider region but foreign powers underestimated often this reality. Historically Afghanistan was part of many regional governments that were ruling Central Asia and often Pakistan, India, and Iran. Even today people in northern and central Afghanistan share cultural and ethnic ties with Central Asians, while western Afghanis have closer links to Iranians. Similarly, southern and eastern Afghanis exhibit cultural connections to Pakistan and India. Even in religion, Afghanistan reflects the region's diversity. Shia Islam is prominent in Iran, while Sunni and Sufi traditions are shared with Central Asia, Pakistan and Turkey. This deep regional integration is crucial for Afghanistan's future stability and development. By fostering closer ties with its neighbors, Afghanistan can tap into economic opportunities, improve security cooperation, and build a more peaceful and prosperous future.
Thirdly, Afghanistan is a victim of [the] great power's competition ignoring its neutrality policy: Afghanistan’s location is very strategic and sensitive. Great powers look to Afghanistan’s geography as a battlefield and their people as gladiators that should fight for their cause. History tells [us that] when the great powers interfere and compete with each other Afghanistan is unstable and when great powers respect [a] neutrality policy Afghanistan becomes stable. For instance, from first World War to [the] Cold War Afghanistan was one of the most stable countries in the region. It’s because the great powers respected the Neutrality Policy of Afghanistan. When the Soviet Union intervened, Afghanistan became unstable. In the future also Afghanistan with a policy of neutrality with great powers can become a stable country. These factors have contributed to a cycle of instability and violence in Afghanistan. Moving forward, foreign engagement needs to focus on understanding the Afghan context, building trust, adopting a long-term and holistic approach, and fostering regional cooperation to create a more sustainable path towards peace and stability.
Q: How has the Taliban takeover impacted Afghanistan's global relations?
A: Since the Taliban takeover in August 2021, Afghanistan's relationship with the international community has been significantly strained. No country has formally recognized the Taliban government, citing [the need for] conditions such as inclusive government, women rights, ethnic groups and human rights, [and citing the] lack of inclusivity, and the potential resurgence of terrorist groups. While all the regional and international community are in agreement on the above preconditions, in practice they are wary. The Doha Agreement, signed between the United States and the Taliban in 2020, facilitated the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in exchange for Taliban commitments, including preventing terrorist groups from using Afghanistan as a base. While it aimed to end the war, many argue the agreement ultimately contributed to the collapse of the previous Afghan government and the return of the Taliban regime. Its legacy remains a point of contention, impacting the trust and current dynamics between the U.S and the regional powers… China, Russia, and Iran have engaged in talks with the Taliban, seeking to control the Taliban and potentially gain economic advantages. China, for example, is interested in investing in Afghan minerals like those found in the Amu basin. Iran established a close relationship with the Taliban super leader and helped them [in] establishing a special force like the revolutionary guards of Iran, and Russia recently didn’t participate in the Doha conference held by the UN. However, they remain wary and haven't fully embraced the Taliban regime.
Q: What efforts should be made by the international community to bring about greater peace and security in Afghanistan?
A: Among regional and international powers there is agreement on goals such as women’s rights and inclusive government as preconditions for recognition of a future government but in the approaches and mechanisms there are differences. We have regional platforms like the Samarqand Forum initiated by the neighboring countries and international initiatives like the Doha conference initiated by the UN and supported by the U.S. While they share common goals, the lack of coordination between these efforts and the exclusion of the Afghan people themselves are major hurdles to achieving lasting peace. Regarding this, two key actions are crucial. First, fostering collaboration between regional and international platforms is vital. We need dialogue and joint efforts to bridge the divide and create a unified approach that leverages the strengths of both platforms while addressing their individual shortcomings. The second crucial step is ensuring the inclusion of the Afghan people themselves. This means engaging all relevant stakeholders, including opposition groups, the Taliban, women, civil society representatives and representatives of various ethnic and religious groups, through a genuine and inclusive dialogue process. Empowering the Afghan people to identify solutions and define their vision for an inclusive peace government is crucial. This fosters a sense of ownership and increases the likelihood of long-term stability. A purely top-down approach by the international community wouldn't be sustainable. I believe these steps can pave the way for a more peaceful and prosperous future for Afghanistan. The international community could incentivize the Taliban to move towards a more inclusive government and respect human rights.
Q: We've noticed a decrease in international focus on Afghanistan recently. Despite that, how important is Afghanistan for Central Asia strategically? With the current situation in Afghanistan being unstable, how can Central Asia move forward?
Noori: That's a very important question. Even if the international spotlight has shifted, Afghanistan's location and potential make it a vital player in Central Asia's future. Let's break down why Afghanistan is strategically significant for Central Asia in two key areas: security and economic connectivity.
Q: Can you elaborate on the security concerns?
A: Absolutely. Instability in Afghanistan can easily spill over into Central Asia. This creates a breeding ground for extremism and potentially fuels violence across borders. With the Taliban in control, the lack of a legitimate government creates additional security challenges for Central Asian nations. Without a stable Afghan government with effective border control, Central Asia faces increased risks of drug trafficking, weapons proliferation, and even militant infiltration. Open borders can become pathways for these threats.
Q: Economic connectivity: Now, let's talk about economic connectivity. How does Afghanistan play a role?
A: This is another crucial aspect. Central Asian countries are geographically landlocked. Afghanistan acts as a critical land bridge, connecting them to South and West Asia. Stable and secure access routes through Afghanistan are essential for Central Asia to expand trade, access new markets, and participate in regional and global economic activity. Imagine a joint cross-border strategic development plan for both sides of the Amu Darya/River, utilizing resources, infrastructure, and markets efficiently. Central Asia's economic growth hinges on a stable Afghanistan. Without a secure Afghanistan, plans for regional development and joint strategies will be difficult to achieve.
Q: How can Central Asia move forward with the current situation?
A: A stable and legitimate government in Afghanistan contributes to regional security for all. Without it, Central Asia faces significant challenges on both security and economic fronts. Open borders under the Taliban pose security risks, while closed borders and limited connectivity hinder economic growth. This is why Central Asia has a vested interest in seeing a stable and legitimate government emerge in Afghanistan. It's not just about Afghanistan itself, but about creating a more secure and prosperous region for all. A normal, stable, and legitimate government in Afghanistan would facilitate trade routes and infrastructure development, benefiting all parties. However, the Taliban's control over the country creates a complex obstacle. Unfortunately, under the Taliban rule, there's no way for these strategic plans to be implemented. Such plans need a stable and legitimate government in Afghanistan, which the Taliban currently isn't and likely won't be in the future. Seeing the Taliban as a provider of security and a partner in development projects would be a big mistake. Ultimately, a stable and legitimate government in Afghanistan would be the most beneficial scenario for all parties involved.
By Assel Nussupova
Assel Nussupova is a distinguished economist with over two decades of service to the Kazakh government and a Master's in Economics from Georgetown University. Recognized as an authority in macroeconomics, commodity and financial markets, and economic policies, she provides valuable insights into Kazakhstan's economy and global economic trends.
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