The Ukraine-Russia conflict persists with no signs of resolution as of early 2024, marked by escalating tensions and recent military actions. The recent terrorist attack near Moscow has further inflamed the situation, with both sides accusing each other. Resolving the conflict requires compromises from Ukraine, Russia, and the West, particularly addressing NATO expansion concerns. Samuel Huntington's, proposals offer potential frameworks for peace, emphasizing recognition of EU and NATO expansion, non-aggression pacts, acknowledgement of Russia's security role, and harmonization of interests. These agreements could ensure mutual security amid demographic challenges and foster cooperation.
The terrorist attack on March 22 at the Crocus City Hall concert hall in Krasnogorsk, near Moscow, set the stage for a prolonged confrontation. Russian officials openly attribute the attack to Western and Ukrainian influences, an allegation firmly contested by Ukraine, which alternatively points the finger at Russia.
In response to the Crocus City Hall attack, the Russian military intensified its bombardment of Ukrainian cities, labelling it as “retribution.” If this persists, Russia may target a Ukrainian nuclear power plant, citing “revenge for the terrorist attack.” This could escalate the conflict internationally, potentially involving other nations and leading to the deployment of nuclear weapons.
The resolution of the conflict demands compromises involving not only Ukraine and Russia but also the Western bloc. Considering Russia's apprehensions about NATO's expansion, a comprehensive agreement would need to encompass broader security concerns.
In the early 1990s, American political scientist Samuel Huntington predicted in his work “The Clash of Civilisations and the New World Order” that a war would eventually break out between Russia and Ukraine. His prediction was confirmed on February 24, 2022. Huntington also proposed solutions to end the conflict between the West and Russia, which may be constructive in resolving the current war in Ukraine.
Samuel Huntington's predictions and proposed solutions regarding Russian-Western relations offer potential frameworks for peace. His recommendations entail:
1. Recognition of EU and NATO expansion. Russia recognises the expansion of the EU and NATO to incorporate Western Christian states, contingent upon guarantees against further enlargement provided Ukraine's sovereignty is respected.
2. Non-aggression pact and security dialogues. Establishing a non-aggression pact between Russia and NATO, incorporating routine security dialogues and collaborative efforts to control the arms race, underlined by relevant arms control agreements reflective of the post-Cold War context.
3. Acknowledgement of Russia’s security role. The West acknowledges Russia's role as the principal security provider in regions with a dominant Orthodox presence and addresses potential security concerns in Muslim areas of southern Russia, with provisions for arms control alterations that Russia deems essential.
4. Harmonization of interests. There should be a harmonization of interests between Russia and the West in territories where Orthodox and Western concerns intersect, such as Bosnia. This would ensure a balanced approach to resolving conflicts and maintaining peace.
Huntington argued that such agreements could assure mutual security, especially considering the demographic trends of ageing populations and declining birth rates in both Europe and Russia. These demographic factors highlight the importance of seeking a peaceful resolution and fostering cooperative relations.
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