The world’s highest peaks are at risk of losing up to 80% of their volume by the end of the century with profound consequences for millions of people under worst-case climate scenarios, CNN reports.
Himalayan glaciers are facing a dire future as temperatures continue to rise, with a new report warning that they could lose up to 80% of their ice by the end of the century. The report, released on June 20 by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) in Nepal, examines the impact of climate change on an area stretching 4.1mn square kilometers from Afghanistan in the west to Myanmar in the east.
Comparing the 2010s with the previous decade, the report reveals that the glaciers in the Hindu Kush and Himalaya mountain range regions melted 65% faster, indicating that higher temperatures are already taking a toll. This is concerning because the ice and snow in the region serve as a vital source of freshwater for 12 rivers that nourish two billion people in 16 countries, including China, India, and Pakistan. If the rate of melting continues, the region could face a dangerous water shortage.
The findings also suggest that the projections from a 2019 report by the same group have worsened. Even under the most optimistic scenario, where global warming is limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, the region would still lose at least one-third of its glaciers. However, with a temperature increase of 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius, the mountain region could lose 30% to 50% of its volume by 2100. If global warming exceeds 3 degrees Celsius, glaciers in Nepal and Bhutan are at risk of losing 75% of their ice, and just one degree more would lead to an 80% loss.
The World Meteorological Organization predicts that the annual mean global near-surface temperature for each year between 2023 and 2027 will be 1.1 to 1.8 degrees Celsius higher than the average from 1850 to 1900. This places the Earth dangerously close to the key tipping point of 1.5 degrees Celsius, beyond which the likelihood of extreme weather events, such as floods, droughts, wildfires, and food shortages, dramatically increases.
“In all three pillars of climate action – in mitigation, adaptation, and loss and damage – we are at a standstill or going the wrong way; while the consequences of inaction are accelerating by the day,” Prof. Saleemul Huq, director of the International Centre for Climate Change and Development in Bangladesh quoted.
The consequences of rapid warming and glacial melt in the Himalayan region are far-reaching. Around 240mn people live in the area, with their cultures deeply intertwined with the mountains for centuries. Additionally, 1.65bn people live downstream, relying on the rivers fed by the glaciers for their water supply. The accelerated melting will not only lead to flooded farmlands downstream but also cause periods of drought as water sources dry up.
As mentioned before, the report not only highlights the increased risk of floods, but also landslides, and avalanches due to the erosion of glacial slopes. This poses a significant threat to the many living in mountain communities.
“For them, this is home, and their livelihoods are mostly dependent on agriculture, livestock, tourism, and medicinal and aromatic plants. What we realized in doing this assessment is that all of these are very, very sensitive to slight changes in climatic conditions and cryospheric conditions in the region,” said co-author, Amina Maharjan, a senior specialist in livelihoods and migration at ICIMOD.
The unique ecosystems of the region, encompassing tropical and subtropical rainforests, temperate coniferous forests, and cold deserts, are also at risk. The changing climate threatens the survival of diverse species, with 14 species of butterflies already extinct in the Murree Hills of Pakistan. Endemic frog species are particularly vulnerable, experiencing breeding problems and developmental deformities due to climate change.
The ICIMOD emphasizes the urgent need for action to prevent catastrophe. With 2bn people in Asia rely on the water provided by the glaciers and snow in the Hindu Kush and Himalaya region.
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