The majority of Belarusians hold an unfavorable view of Alexander Lukashenko's regime and the state bureaucracy, while the elite and intelligence agencies surprisingly remain loyal to him, largely due to an extensive network of informants.
The security forces are compelled to either comply or remain silent. Sky News of Great Britain speculates on the potential situation in Belarus after the president's death amidst his declining health. The authors predict the emergence of various groups and alliances within the local elite once the vertical line of subordination is disrupted.
They also note Russia's likely intervention, aiming to install its own representative as the new president. However, Belarusians are reluctant to surrender their sovereignty, and influential groups opposing Russian influence may arise.
The longstanding system that Lukashenko has upheld for three decades may also permeate the elite. The forecast includes the possibility of renewed mass protests similar to those observed in 2020.
Given the events in Ukraine, it is suggested that Vladimir Putin may lack the necessary resources to suppress popular unrest. Hence, some degree of liberalization may occur, though the emergence of new democratic leadership under Russian influence seems unlikely.
The journalists emphasize the potential for Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, an opposition figure, to lead the country toward change, symbolized by the release of political prisoners. They acknowledge that a transition akin to that witnessed in Soviet history will take time, but believe that new leaders can bring about fresh opportunities as Belarus grows weary of dictatorship.
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