The Asian Development Bank (ADB) CAREC (Central Asian Regional Economic Cooperation) report "Energy Outlook 2030" critically assessed the energy future of the region by analyzing the energy landscape and market trends in countries, countries contributing to regional cooperation and development partnerships (pdf).
The publication focuses on the countries of Central Asia and the Caucasus, as well as their neighbours Mongolia, Pakistan and China.
Below are five facts about the energy outlook for Central Asia and the rest of the CAREC region.
Energy demand in the CAREC region (excluding China) to grow by more than 30 percent by 2030
In 2020, energy demand in CAREC countries (excluding China) was 204 million tons of oil equivalent. By 2030, this figure will increase to about 32 percent, when electricity will become one of the largest sources of consumption.
Energy consumption of natural gas is also expected to increase, reflecting its dominant position as a fuel for electricity generation and direct consumption in the residential and industrial sectors.
Upgrading the electricity grid and installing smart meters will help minimize energy losses, reduce
Wind and solar energy are becoming very competitive
Hydropower is currently the largest source of renewable energy in the CAREC region, with more than 380 gigawatts (GW) of installed capacity as of 2019, including China, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Georgia, which rely heavily on hydropower.
Investments in wind and solar power are also becoming profitable, with production costs increasing by more than 80 percent and 35 percent, respectively, since 2010.
Currently, wind and solar energy make up only 6% of the installed capacities in the region.
The region needs large-scale public investment to unlock the huge potential of wind and solar energy, but regulatory reform and private sector participation that can be encouraged is essential, among other things.
The CAREC region (excluding China) needs about $340 billion in energy investment
Taking into account the size of the CAREC countries' market and the need for infrastructure modernization, its need for energy investment by 2030 (excluding China) is estimated at 136-339 billion dollars.
If China is also included in this calculation, the investment needs of the region are estimated at 2.9-3.8 trillion dollars. These include investments in energy production and energy efficiency.
The region can further increase its energy security through cross-border infrastructure such as the Central Asian Power System, which connects Central Asian countries with different voltage levels and enables regional electricity trade.
CAREC countries take steps to reduce energy-related carbon emissions
CAREC countries have committed to reducing energy-related carbon emissions to help mitigate climate change.
These commitments, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), vary from country to country. Under certain scenarios, emissions are expected to decrease by 18 percent or 30 percent by 2030 compared to the business-as-usual scenario.
CAREC countries, including China, are working to reduce their total emissions by 30 percent by 2030 from 2020 levels. To achieve these reductions, countries are expanding their use of renewable energy and nuclear power, switching from coal to gas, and implementing energy efficiency measures.
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