In 2023, world prices for basic food commodities are expected to be relatively low. This was announced by the Central Bank of Uzbekistan in the forecasts of the monetary policy for the next three years. It is noted that the expectations of basic food prices in the world markets show a downward trend.
Due to the gradual decrease in the prices of transport and logistics services, which reached their peak in 2020, it is expected that the world prices for basic food commodities will be relatively lower in 2023. There are forecasts that the FAO index, which represents the prices of food and agricultural products of the United Nations Organization, will decrease to 120-130 points in 2023 (it was 137 points as of September of this year). The downward trends in basic food prices, together with measures taken by foreign central banks, will contribute to the softening of global inflationary processes next year.
According to the Central Bank, a high share of food imports is expected to remain in Uzbekistan next year.
Re-export operations have also taken place in Uzbekistan's exports in the context of the acute external situation that has arisen this year. The continuation of this trend in the next year will be one of the factors affecting both export and import volumes. Taking into account the preservation of economic activity and growth rates in the private sector, it is estimated that the volume of imports will grow by 14-15 percent in 2023, 12-14 percent in 2024, and 8-10 percent in 2025. Relatively high shares of imports of chemical products, machinery and equipment, and imports of foodstuffs are expected to remain in the composition of imports.
Earlier, the International Monetary Fund projected a slowdown in economic growth and a decline in inflation in Uzbekistan in 2023.
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