The Center for Economic Research and Reform of Uzbekistan (CERRU) has calculated GDP forecasts for 2022. The press service of the centre informed "Daryo.
According to the local think tank, negative external shocks have significantly impacted Uzbekistan's economy exposing specific aspects of the gross domestic product that were not revealed in the indicators at the end of the quarter.
The chart shows a sharp slump in February-March of this year before its full recovery in the 2nd quarter.
The experts say that this could be due to seasonal factors. For example, in the fiscal period of 2018-2021, the growth of the GDP of Uzbekistan in the first quarter was 0.43% less than the annual growth of the GDP.
The weekly forecast indicators of GDP dynamics, the estimated indicators of economic growth in the first half of 2022 compared to the same period last year amounted to 4.99%.
In the third quarter of 2022, an upward trend is observed, which will increase the growth rate by at least 0.68% per year. Accordingly, real GDP growth for 2022 is forecasted at the level of 5.77 %.
Based on these factors, the forecast range of economic growth of Uzbekistan for 2022 was set at the level of 5.67-5.87 %.
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