China has become Tajikistan’s largest trading partner, surpassing Russia for the first time, according to Asiaplus, citing Tajikistan’s Statistics Agency.
During the first five months of 2025, bilateral trade between Tajikistan and China reached $964mn — a 32% increase compared to the same period last year. Of this, Tajik exports to China totaled over $177mn, while imports from China stood at approximately $787mn.
China’s share in Tajikistan’s total foreign trade volume has now climbed to 24.8%, edging out Russia, which held a 23.2% share. For over 25 years, Russia had consistently been Tajikistan’s leading trade partner.
By comparison, Tajikistan’s trade turnover with Russia for the January–May period stood at around $900mn. Exports to Russia were valued at about $42mn, while imports from Russia amounted to $858mn. This marked a more modest year-on-year growth of 9.3%.
Shifting Trade Landscape
This shift marks a broader rebalancing in Tajikistan’s international trade and economic alignment. In the 1990s, neighboring Uzbekistan was Tajikistan’s top trading partner.
In 1995, bilateral trade between the two countries reached $250mn—more than double the combined trade with all other CIS states. However, relations cooled in the late 1990s, and by 2014, trade between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan had dwindled to just $13mn.
Since the rise to power of Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, bilateral ties have improved, resulting in a steady recovery in trade. In the first five months of 2025, Tajik-Uzbek trade reached $238mn.
China’s Expanding Economic Footprint
China’s rise as Tajikistan’s top trading partner comes as no surprise. It overtook Russia as the country’s leading foreign investor back in 2017. As of the second quarter of 2025, the volume of accumulated Chinese investments in Tajikistan stands at $5.1bn, more than double the $2bn in Russian investments.
China is also Tajikistan’s main external creditor. As of early 2025, Dushanbe owes approximately $1bn to Beijing — about one-third of the country's total external debt.
Earlier, it was reported that trade between Tajikistan and Afghanistan grew by 31.1% in the first five months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, reaching nearly $40mn. Tajikistan exported around $32mn worth of goods to Afghanistan, accounting for 80% of the total trade volume, while imports from Afghanistan amounted to approximately $8mn.
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