Inflation expectations in Uzbekistan are on the rise, with key factors like energy prices and utility tariff hikes playing a significant role in shaping forecasts for 2025. According to a recent study by the Central Bank, the average inflation forecast for the next 12 months has reached 14.4%, marking the highest level since February 2023, with the median estimate at 11.6%.
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Regional variations in inflation expectations are notable, with Tashkent recording the highest expectations at 19%, followed by Fergana at 16.7% and Kashkadarya at 16%. In contrast, regions like Andijan (12.4%), Khorezm (12.7%), and Karakalpakstan (12.9%) reported the lowest inflation projections.
The report also highlights a significant disparity in expectations between different sectors. Industrial workers have the highest inflation forecasts at 16%, followed closely by civil servants (15.8%) and educators and researchers (15.2%). On the other hand, sectors such as household services (12.2%), tourism (12.3%), and agriculture (12.5%) expressed relatively lower expectations.
Income levels also correlate with inflation expectations, with individuals earning over UZS15 mn per month anticipating an inflation rate of 18.6%, while those earning UZS2–3 mn projected a much lower increase of 13.9%.
The Central Bank’s report identifies several key drivers behind these inflation projections. Fuel price increases (57%), utility tariff hikes (56%), and exchange rate fluctuations (55%) are cited as the primary factors influencing expectations. Additionally, rising transportation costs (35%) and monopolistic practices (33%) are contributing to the outlook.
Among businesses, inflation expectations have risen by more than a percentage point, reaching 13.9%, with the median forecast standing at 11.4%. Businesses in Tashkent (16.9%), Samarkand (15.2%), and the Fergana region (15%) have the highest expectations. In contrast, Karakalpakstan (11.5%), Khorezm (12.4%), and Surkhandarya (12.8%) reported lower projections.
Sector-specific expectations also differ significantly, with businesses in construction and agriculture forecasting the highest inflation at 14.5%, followed by the food service sector at 14.2%. On the lower end, businesses in transportation (11.8%), cultural (11.9%), and tourism (12.5%) sectors expect more moderate inflation.
The primary factors influencing business inflation projections include exchange rate dynamics and utility costs (52%), followed by fuel price increases (49%), higher transportation costs (34%), and increased tax burdens (27%).
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