During this period of confrontation between the great powers, Central Asia is considered by Western countries [the US and its allies] primarily as a potential source of problems for their systemic competitors - Russia and China. After February 2022, this feature of Western politics, primarily American, began to manifest itself more vividly.
The main goals of US policy in Central Asia
There have been no drastic changes in US policy towards the countries of the region since the Biden administration came to power. In particular, the program document of the American policy in Central Asia has not been updated. The region is mentioned in the latest edition of the US National Security Strategy, which states the need to maintain a democratic course, regional integration and energy security of the countries of the region.
The differences are mainly in accents: under Biden, the anti-Russian orientation of policy in the region became more clearly defined. During the Trump administration, China was the main target of the US.
For example, if during the visit of US Secretary of State Pompeo to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan anti-Chinese rhetoric was predominantly heard, during the visit of current Secretary of State Blinken there were more anti-Russian statements.
American policy in Central Asia as a whole is aimed at achieving two key goals:
1. To encourage the countries of the region to integrate without the participation of Russia and China, thereby weakening the positions of the main competitors.
2. To strengthen the positions of pro-American forces in the political environment, as well as in the cultural and educational spheres.
A multi-faceted approach
The C5+1 remains the main multilateral format of cooperation between the US and Central Asian countries. This format has been in effect since 2015, and a secretariat was established within the framework of the forum in 2022, which coordinates the activities of three working groups: on economics, energy and environmental protection, and security.
The Biden administration is also actively putting forward regional initiatives. One of the main goals of the Economic Sustainability Initiative for Central Asia was to expand trade routes bypassing Russia. The Regional Security Initiative, launched after the C5+1 ministerial meeting in 2023, is designed to "...mitigate the unintended consequences of sanctions" for the countries of the region.
Other multilateral initiatives include the Council of the Framework Agreement on Trade and Investment (in existence since 2004), the Regional Cooperation annual joint military exercises and individual initiatives of the American Agency for International Development (USAID). In particular, USAID is promoting an initiative to create a single electricity market in the region.
US policy towards Kazakhstan
Despite the considerable number of multilateral initiatives, the US adheres more to a bilateral approach in the region. Due to its geographical characteristics (it borders both Russia and China, and is also rich in resources), Kazakhstan remains the highest priority area of US policy in the region.
It is in this state that American business has the strongest positions compared to other countries in the region, and the reform process in Kazakhstan expands the possibilities of external influence.
American diplomacy towards Kazakhstan resembles the carrot and stick method. On the one hand, the US exerts strong pressure on Kazakhstan in order to prevent Russian companies from participating in the privatization process in the republic.
Threats of secondary sanctions and freezing of Kazakhstani assets are being used. There was already a precedent when in 2017 the British branch of the American bank temporarily froze part of the assets of the National Fund of Kazakhstan.
On the other hand, the US publicly supports the current course of reforms. Washington also regularly announces its intention to expand access to its sales market for Kazakhstani goods (including industrial products).
Educational cooperation between the two countries is reaching a new level. In 2022, an unprecedented event occurred for the region - the North Kazakhstan University was transferred to the trust management of the University of Arizona. Activities at this university will be conducted according to American standards.
At the same time, Washington still has to reckon with the interests of its large neighbors in the person of Russia and China, with whom Kazakhstan has closer relations. This factor restricts the US and forces it to act more cautiously.
US policy towards Uzbekistan
Uzbekistan is an equally important partner of the US in the region. Uzbekistan has the largest population in the region. Unlike Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan is not a member of the CSTO or the EAEU and does not border with China and Russia. Despite the complicated history of relations, the US and Uzbekistan still had a period of close cooperation in 2001-2005.
American think tanks often see Uzbekistan as the core of a future coalition from the countries of the region, which supposedly will have to restrain Russia. For example, a similar scenario was considered in the material of the Heritage Foundation.
Noteworthy, in both countries there are lobbyists for the accelerated development of American-Uzbek relations. In the US, it is an Institute of Central Asia and the Caucasus, which has close ties with the US Department of Defense. Among the supporters of rapprochement with the US from Tashkent, one can single out former Foreign Minister A. Kamilov, Deputy Chairman of the upper house of Parliament S. Safoyev, and Minister for the Development of Information Technologies and Communications Sh. Shermatov.
The US is gradually increasing investment activity in Uzbekistan; cooperation is mainly developing in such areas as the development and trade of energy resources (gas, uranium and oil), pharmaceuticals. The parties are building up ties in the military-technical sphere, as well as in the field of military education.
Cooperation in the field of education is also actively developing between the two countries. The parties are developing joint training programs for specialists, including in such areas as journalism and public administration.
US policy towards Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan
Kyrgyzstan has traditionally had a more liberal regime with regard to the activities of NGOs, which makes the republic attractive both to the US in general and to American humanitarian organizations in particular. American and pro-American NGOs are actively involved in the educational process and humanitarian activities in the republic. The central issue of bilateral relations remains the problem of resuming the Cooperation Agreement, the process is constantly postponed.
American policy towards Tajikistan intensified dramatically in 2021 during the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan. Tajikistan has taken a completely different position from its neighbors on the issue of the Taliban coming to power in Afghanistan. It is assumed that Tajikistan initially provided assistance to the Afghan National Resistance Front, and since then the parties have significantly intensified military cooperation. However, trade and economic ties between the two countries cannot be called close.
Turkmenistan is gradually ceasing to be on the periphery of American policy in the region. There has been a rapid increase in cooperation since 2022. The US is trying to convince Turkmenistan that it can benefit from anti-Russian sanctions in the form of increasing exports of natural resources. Agreeing to rapprochement, Turkmenistan hopes for the unfreezing of financing of the trans-Afghan gas pipeline by the Asian Development Bank (the US is one of the main shareholders of the ADB). Turkmenistan has also allowed the launch of American educational programs and the activities of some NGOs (mainly for environmental protection).
The US continues to view Central Asia primarily as a tool to deter Russia and China. After 2022, there is an increased activity of American policy in the region. Despite efforts to promote multilateral initiatives, the US primarily relies on a bilateral approach in relations with the countries of the region. At the same time, Washington's economic ties with the countries of the region remain relatively weak. Another problem for the US was the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, which does not allow Washington to be perceived as a reliable partner. The US is likely to maintain its current course of gradually increasing influence without drastic steps, focusing on the medium term. Threats of secondary sanctions are most likely unrealizable, while it cannot be ruled out that the US may take single symbolic restrictive measures. Washington's attempts to influence the educational process in order to cultivate new representatives of the elites, as well as the work of Americans with the current elites, deserve special attention.
Read the full version of the report on the website of the Center for Eurasian Studies of Tomsk State University.
The article was published on ia-centr.ru on May 22, 2024.
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