• Sign in
  • 1744009905_435.svg 1744009905_642.svg

  • Latest news
  • Top headlines
  • Most read
  • Columnists
O'zbekcha
Ўзбекча
Русский
  • O'zb
  • Ўзб
  • Рус
  • Eng
  • O'zb
  • Ўзб
  • Рус
  • Eng
  • Latest news
  • Top headlines
  • Most read
  • Columnists
    • USD12410.99
    • RUB158.38
    • EUR14237.89
    • Google play
    • App Store
    • Telegram
    • Tashkent
      +29°C
      • Andijan
      • Karshi
      • Bukhara
      • Samarkand
      • Ferghana
      • Sirdarya
      • Jizzakh
      • Termez
      • Namangan
      • Tashkent
      • Navoiy
      • Tashkent reg
      • Nukus
      • Urgench
    • Daryo
      • About Daryo
      • Editorial office
      • Contact us
      • Terms of use
      • Privacy policy
      • News archive
    • Advertisement
    • Social networks
      • Instagram | Main
      • Instagram | Lifestyle
      • Instagram | Sport
      • Facebook | Main
      • OK | Main
      • YouTube | Daryo
      • YouTube | Daryo in Russian
      • YouTube | Daryo Global
    Telegram Youtube Facebook Instagram Twitter vkontakte
    Daryo logo white
    • Uzbekistan
      • Others
      • Navoi
      • Tashkent region
      • Syrdarya
      • Jizzakh
      • Kashkadarya
      • Surkhandarya
      • Khorezm
      • Bukhara
      • Samarkand
      • Namangan
      • Fergana
      • Andijan
      • Karakalpakstan
      • Tashkent City
      • DaryoKindness
      • Weather
    • Central Asia
      • Uzbekistan
      • Afghanistan
      • Kyrgyzstan
      • Kazakhstan
      • Turkmenistan
      • Tajikistan
    • World
    • Money
      • Business
      • Economics
      • Finance
      • Crypto
    • Culture
      • Movies
      • Books
      • Music
      • Celebrities
    • Lifestyle
      • Women only
        • Children
        • Beauty
        • Carrier
        • Advises
        • Fashion
        • Recipes
      • Technology
        • Architecture
        • Gadjets
        • Science
        • Space
        • Media
      • Auto
      • Entertainment
      • Travel
      • Health
      • Education
        • Entrant
        • Learn english
    • Sport
      • Football
      • UFC
      • Boxing
    infinix
    Daryo.uz - Login
    Daryo.uz Daryo.uz
    Daryo.uz - Login
    Economics Central Asia

    Tajikistan’s economy to experience 6.5% GDP growth in 2024, IMF reports

    Tajikistan’s economy to experience 6.5% GDP growth in 2024, IMF reports

    From 2016 to 2023, Tajikistan maintained robust growth, peaking at 9.4% in 2021. However, a downturn is projected in 2024 with a growth of 6.5%, further declining to 4.5% in 2025, as per the IMF's "April 2024 Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia" report. 

    Tajikistan’s real GDP growth was robust in recent years, with a y/y increase of 9.4% in 2021, 8% in 2022, and 8.3% in 2023. This strong economic rebound was supported by an increase in precious metals exports and gains in both private investment and consumption. However, projections for 2024 and 2025 indicate a slowdown to 6.5% and 4.5% respectively. This deceleration could be attributed to a projected moderation in remittance inflows, lower foreign direct investment (FDI), and weaker exports.
     
    In terms of nominal GDP, Tajikistan has shown a steady increase from $8.9 bn in 2021 to $11.9 bn in 2023. Projections for 2024 and 2025 further suggest a rise to $13 bn and $14.1 bn respectively. This growth can be linked to the country’s strong economic performance and higher wages, which helped reduce poverty.

     

    Consumer price inflation in Tajikistan was on a downward trend, falling from 9% in 2021 to 3.7% in 2023. However, projections for 2024 and 2025 show an increase of 4.9% and 6.3% respectively. This could be due to rising global demand for fuel and food, and supply chain bottlenecks exerting upward pressure on import prices.

    Photo: IMF
    Source: Daily Sabah

    The general government fiscal balance as a percentage of GDP remained relatively stable, hovering around 24% from 2021 to 2023. Projections for 2024 and 2025 suggest a slight decrease to 23.7% and an increase to 25.2% respectively. This could be due to the government’s budgetary consolidation efforts and the expiration of COVID-19-related fiscal relief.

    Tajikistan’s total gross external debt as a percentage of GDP saw a slight increase from 63.2% in 2021 to 64.7% in 2023. Projections for 2024 and 2025 suggest a further increase to 65% and a decrease to 64.3% respectively. Despite the sustainability of public debt, the risk of debt distress remains high due to upcoming repayments of Eurobonds.

     

    The potential reasons behind this are:

    1. Weaker remittances: Tajikistan’s economy is significantly dependent on remittances, primarily from Tajik nationals working abroad. Any decrease in these remittances can impact the country’s GDP growth.

    2. Fiscal space constraints: Limited fiscal space could restrict the government’s ability to invest in public services and infrastructure, which could slow down economic growth.

    3. Subdued global demand for major export commodities: If the global demand for Tajikistan’s major export commodities decreases, it could negatively impact the country’s export earnings and thus its GDP growth.

    4. Climate challenges and risks: Tajikistan faces significant climate challenges and risks that could lead to irreversible economic, social, and environmental damage. For instance, the country has lost an estimated 20% of its glaciers in the past 34 years, posing a major threat to the economy as it is heavily dependent on glacier-fed rivers for hydropower generation.

    5. Inflation: Inflation in Tajikistan is projected to reach 5.5% in 2024 and 6.5% in 2025. The increase in inflation is due to anticipated higher lending as deposits increase; a 40% rise in pensions, stipends, and public sector salaries which became effective on January 1, 2024; and a 16% increase in electricity tariffs which also came into being on the first day of this year.

     

    Follow Daryo's official Instagram and Twitter pages to keep current on world news.

    19.04.2024, 17:37   Comments (0)   2033
    Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Telegram Email

    Comments (0)

    Sign in
    Leave A Reply Cancel

    On this topic

    Uzbekistan's car market sees 5.8% decrease, despite over 109,000 units sold in March 

    19.04.2024, 17:04

    Chinese investments fuel plans for $2bn solar power plant in Uzbekistan’s Akhangaran 

    19.04.2024, 13:00

    ACWA Power partners with Apex Life Insurance to boost employee well-being in Uzbekistan 

    19.04.2024, 11:30

    Central Asian dust levels escalate by 7% in over 30 years amidst Aral Sea drought 

    19.04.2024, 11:00

    Kapitalbank maintains its top spot in activity rating of largest banks in Uzbekistan

    19.04.2024, 10:00

    Uzbekistan’s largest taxpayers contribute nearly $2 bn to national treasury in 1Q24  

    19.04.2024, 09:30
    ×Lightbox Image

    Daryo.uz | Solution to your problems


    Beeline Uzbekistan started 2025 with a significant network modernization


    Beepul 's rising popularity: 3.5x user growth, transaction up 2.3x in 2024


    More than 500,000 new users: residents of Uzbekistan choose the Hambi superapp


    Don't want to waste time standing in lines? Pay your utility bills through the Ipoteka Retail mobile app?

     

    Recommended

    Iran as the pressure point: How Washington’s campaign against Tehran seeks to undercut China and Russia - and why Central Asia risks the fallout

    19 June, 12:24

    "Visa simplification with Uzbekistan could be on the table," EU Ambassador Klaar points out

    11 June, 12:12

    “Uzbekistan is undergoing large-scale reforms and transformation,” says EU business leader at TIIF

    11 June, 08:34

    Central Bank warns half of monthly income goes to loans as debt burden rises in Uzbekistan

    3 June, 12:34
     
     
     

    Latest news

    Komil Allamjonov designated as independent advisor to Uzbekistan’s Presidential Administration head Saida Mirziyoyeva

    Uzbekistan | 23 June, 22:58

    Saida Mirziyoyeva appointed head of Uzbekistan’s presidential administration

    Uzbekistan | 23 June, 22:45

    Uzbekistan, Mongolia ink agreements for joint wool and leather projects ahead of presidential visit

    Uzbekistan | 23 June, 16:02

    Uzbekistan tops Central Asia in FDI for first time in 30 years with $2.8bn inflow

    Uzbekistan | 23 June, 15:00

    Kyrgyzstan, UNDP partner to strengthen national systems for green and climate finance

    Kyrgyzstan | 23 June, 14:02

    China and Kazakhstan sign deal to expand rail freight to Europe via Central Asia

    Central Asia | 23 June, 12:43

    China Eximbank extends $500mn loan to Uzbekistan to develop telecommunications infrastructure

    Uzbekistan | 23 June, 11:30

    Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan agree on several new initiatives to boost trade and investment ties

    Uzbekistan | 23 June, 10:38
    Daryo About Us

    Full reproduction or partial quoting of material, as well as the use of photographic, graphic, audio and/or video materials of Daryo (the Uzbek Press and Information Agency (UzAPI, now the Agency for Information and Mass Communications under the Presidential Administration of the Republic of Uzbekistan) is registered on 13.03.2015 with certificate number No. 0944 as a mass media) is allowed if there is a hyperlink to the website daryo.uz and/or are accompanied by a note indicating the authorship of the online publication Daryo. Individual publications may contain information that is not intended for users under the age of 18. Info@daryo.uz

    Telegram Youtube Facebook Instagram Twitter vkontakte

    © Simple Networking Solutions, 2013–2025

    Age restriction

    Did you find a bug? Press Ctrl + Enter

    • Terms of use
    • Privacy policy
    • Advertisement
    What are we going to search for?

    Sign In or Register

    Welcome Back!

    Login below or Register Now.

    Google

    or with email

    Leaving a comment, Пользовательского соглашения and Политики конфиденциальности

    Register Now

    Already registered? Login.

    Google

    or with email

    A password will be e-mailed to you.

    Leaving a comment, Пользовательского соглашения and Политики конфиденциальности

    Found an error in the text?

    ×

    Thank you. We have received your message and will fix the error as soon as possible.