Uzbekistan's diplomatic overtures toward the Taliban regime signal a shift in regional dynamics, emphasizing a pragmatic approach focused on engagement and cooperation, Hamza Boltaev, Senior Fellow at the Centre for Afghanistan and South Asian Studies writes on his report. Amidst critical issues such as trade, connectivity, and water management, Uzbekistan has embarked on a path of continual dialogue with its southern neighbor, recognizing the importance of fostering constructive relations for mutual benefit.
Diplomatic Dialogue
The recent visit of Uzbekistan's Foreign Minister Bakhtiyor Saidov to Kabul underscores the depth of engagement with key members of the Taliban government. Discussions spanned a wide array of topics, from trade facilitation to security cooperation, highlighting the multifaceted nature of bilateral relations. Uzbekistan's emphasis on investments in key sectors like infrastructure and energy underscores its commitment to fostering economic ties with Afghanistan.
Trade and Investment
Cross-border trade remains a pivotal concern for Uzbekistan, with efforts underway to address the existing trade disparity and boost bilateral trade volumes. Uzbekistan's investment in various infrastructure projects demonstrates its commitment to deeper economic engagement with Afghanistan, aiming to unlock the potential for mutual growth and development.
Diplomatic Pivot – Engagement with Qatar
Uzbekistan's engagement with Qatar as a mediator in the Afghan peace process underscores its strategic calculus in navigating regional dynamics. Leveraging Qatar's rapport with the Taliban, Uzbekistan seeks to broaden the scope of discussions and garner international support for key initiatives such as the Qush-Tepa canal project.
The Qush-Tepa Factor
The Qush-Tepa canal project serves as a focal point in Uzbekistan's engagement with the Taliban, highlighting the complexities of managing transboundary water resources. While Uzbekistan aims to mitigate economic and environmental challenges through deeper cooperation, the absence of formal recognition poses risks to effective management.
Recent satellite imagery analyzed by experts from the international environmental coalition "Rivers Without Boundaries" confirms the ongoing construction of the Qosh Tepa canal in northern Afghanistan, initiated by the Taliban. Concerns arise regarding potential water shortages across Central Asia due to the canal's impact on regional water resources.
The European Sentinel-2 satellite has captured recent images revealing the canal's advancement, with a visible extension of 30 kilometers over the past month. The canal, intended to stretch 285 kilometers, has reached the halfway mark, with the first stage already completed at 108 kilometers.
Alexander Kolotov, the regional director of the Rivers Without Boundaries coalition, voiced concerns, stating that there's no indication the Taliban will halt construction midway. He stressed the urgent need for Afghanistan to participate in water intake quota agreements among Central Asian countries to prevent regional chaos.
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