Central Asia's economies have experienced robust growth in the first half of 2023, driven by factors such as the resumption of international trade and tourism, significant migration and remittances from Russia, according to the latest report on Regional Economic Prospects (REP) by the EBRD.
The EBRD anticipates that GDP growth in the Central Asian region will continue to be strong, projecting a growth rate of 5.7% for 2023 and 5.9% for 2024. This growth has been attributed to various factors, including government spending, the reopening of China's economy, intermediated trade with Russia, and substantial remittances, tourism, and business relocations from Russia.
However, the report also highlights potential challenges that may affect the region's economic trajectory. Higher borrowing costs could influence the scale and enthusiasm for investments in the area. Additionally, recent disruptions in water and energy supplies could prompt necessary tariff reforms and better resource management.
Let's delve into the economic outlook for specific countries in Central Asia:
Kazakhstan: The country's economy is predicted to grow by 5.0 % in both 2023 and 2024, although this projection is somewhat uncertain due to fluctuating oil prices. Kazakhstan has witnessed substantial expansion in retail and wholesale trade and construction. Public and private investments in infrastructure, transport, and warehousing are on the rise, especially in Almaty, which is becoming a vital distribution hub for Central Asian markets. The ongoing war in Ukraine, however, presents a potential risk to Kazakhstan's oil exports.
Figures in billions of US dollars
Kyrgyz Republic: Kyrgyzstan's GDP is expected to grow by 4.6 % in 2023 and 7 % in 2024. The economy faced a slight slowdown in the first seven months of 2023 due to reduced metals output (primarily gold) and agricultural contractions. Nevertheless, strong external demand has driven growth in the domestic textiles sector and the tourism industry, benefiting food production, hospitality, and retail and wholesale trade. Energy and water shortages, as well as secondary sanctions related to intermediated trade with Russia, could pose challenges to Kyrgyzstan's outlook.
Tajikistan: Tajikistan is expected to maintain strong growth of 7.5 % in both 2023 and 2024. Factors contributing to this growth include enhanced regional cooperation, increased public investment (especially in water and energy infrastructure), remittances from Russia, and the solid performance of the manufacturing and agricultural sectors. However, potential challenges include a slowdown in Chinese growth and disputes over transboundary water resources.
Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan is set to achieve a GDP growth rate of 6.5 % in both 2023 and 2024, driven by robust domestic demand, rising nominal wages, and credit expansion. Key sectors such as retail trade, construction, services, and agriculture are performing exceptionally well. Well-managed initial public offerings (IPOs) and privatizations could further strengthen the country's economic outlook. Nevertheless, factors like reduced remittances from Russia, aging infrastructure, and water supply issues could dampen growth.
Mongolia: Mongolia's economy is forecasted to grow by 7.2 % in 2023 and 7.5 % in 2024. The growth is attributed to China's demand for Mongolian commodities, the establishment of new rail connections linking Tavan Tolgoi coal deposits with China, and the initiation of underground production at the Oyu Tolgoi mine. A fully recovered tourism sector is supporting the hospitality and cashmere industries. While stronger growth in exports, mining, and tourism bodes well for the country, global credit tightening and a Chinese economic slowdown remain potential risks.
Central Asia is poised for continued economic growth in the coming years, with each country having its unique strengths and challenges.
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