Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, both major players in the global table grape market, have experienced unprecedented challenges due to severe winter frost damage in their vineyards, East Fruit reported.
Causes of the Crisis
The primary reason behind this crisis is the severe winter frost that ravaged vineyards in both Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. These countries rely heavily on table grapes and raisins as major sources of income in the fruit sector. The damage inflicted by the frost has been devastating and has had far-reaching consequences.
Impact on Grape Prices and Availability
As a direct result of the frost damage, wholesale grape prices have surged to historically high levels. What were typically the cheapest fruits in Tajikistan during this season have become scarce and expensive. Late Toifi variety grapes and other less common varieties are the only ones available, further driving up prices. Importation of grapes from Uzbekistan to Tajikistan has become necessary to meet demand, but this has not mitigated the price increase, as intermediaries often compromise on quality due to cost-cutting measures.
Economic Consequences
The economic ramifications of the frost damage are severe. Tajikistan, facing losses of export revenue ranging from $10 to $15 mn annually in the grape sector alone, has had to resort to importing grapes from Uzbekistan to meet demand. Uzbekistan, despite better preservation of some vineyards, is also grappling with significant losses, given that grapes and raisins constitute a leading source of export revenue, contributing between $180 mn to $280 mn per year.
Consumer Impact
Local consumers in both countries are feeling the brunt of this crisis. Prices for table grapes have soared, forcing consumers to pay more or seek alternatives. Grapes, which were once affordable and popular, are becoming less accessible to the average citizen. The per-person consumption of fresh grapes and raisins is expected to decrease significantly this season, leading to consumer losses estimated at $300-350 mn.
Potential Strategies for Recovery and Adaptation:
Long-term Recovery: It is projected that it will take at least three years for both countries to recover their table grape production to previous levels. This period should be utilized to modernize and diversify the grape industry.
Imports: As an immediate response to the shortage, both countries are expected to increase grape imports, particularly from Southern Hemisphere countries like South Africa, Chile, and Peru. Direct imports, bypassing intermediaries, may also become more common.
Diversification: The crisis highlights the vulnerability of the grape industry in the region due to outdated varietal compositions. This could serve as an opportunity to rethink grape-growing approaches and explore more resilient and modern varieties.
The frost damage to table grape production in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan has resulted in soaring prices, reduced availability, and significant economic losses. The impact on local markets, exports, and consumers is substantial, necessitating immediate measures for recovery and long-term adaptation. While both countries face challenges, they also have opportunities to modernize their grape industries and enhance resilience against future weather-related crises.
Earlier Daryo reported by beginning of October 1, businesses in Uzbekistan could encounter higher electricity and gas rates, as suggested by the Cabinet of Ministers to implement market-based mechanisms in the energy sector.
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